What do you think it will look like in five years? Their acquisition track record is pretty dim; below is how I try and visualize it in one graph. The stacked bar graph has the announced EBITDA for each acquisition (from when it's accretive, not announced) with 20% annual growth built on to each one. The green line is report EBITDA (with clearly visible seasonality), and the red line is statutory losses.
To get to $500m turnover in such a short time they will use acquisitions, this is clearly outlined in their management presentation. Of course, they only have $7m cash in the bank and struggle quarter to quarter for cashflow so they're going to have to:
Do a capital raise, or
Issue more shares to acquire, or
Take on more debt
Have you stepped out what that means for the shares on issue, the balance sheet, and your share price?
That's why I asked you to place a value on the nearer term hypothetical, it's easier to build the numbers out and we can extrapolate from there.
TNT Price at posting:
8.2¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
