As of new year, circled are Phua Thai and Prayut's (at the time)...

As of new year, circled are Phua Thai and Prayut's (at the time) PPRP.

And circled are Phua Thai's candidate and Prayut:


That is not to say that the election will go smoothly, without interference, but the preference does seem to be for 'not Prayut', Phua Thai's candidate (Thaksin's daughter) is the clear leader.

I didn't notice any obvious reason for this to change since new year. But I agree that the army buddies (Prayut/Prawit) will likely rejoin when convenient, and the junta-appointed senate will vote for them once again.

Phua Thai want to get a strong majority, to make the senate a non-issue, but that is a big ask.


I don't think a civilian government would backtrack on the TAFTA negotiations, nor would Prayut, now that they see that they will not win in court. So the election should not impact the company drastically. But ministers could change etc, which might possibly create some turmoil/delays. Hopefully we're approved, open and mining by then though - less impact from delays, just possible on plant 2 or additional exploration leases etc.

Or a civilian government could be overthrown by a junta again (though I don't imagine it happening within 12 months - normally they have to create a justification first, like protests). In that case, it could lead to temporary curfew/lock-down, including KCN staff. But that's not an immediate term risk.


My view: approval will happen soon. I just can't tell whether the company is already utilising the staff and Lotus Hall for pre-mining in the mean-time, and just not allowed to start up the processing plant yet. If the funding supports it, maybe they're digging down to some decent grade in quartz lease.