It seems that the confidence in predicting share prices was...

Looks like it didn't make it. It never reached a "minimum 32c". Most sales were between 29-30c and it closed the week at 29c

It seems that the confidence in predicting share prices was misplaced.

No problem with that. That would make you just like everyone else, including (especially) me. It would have been very surprising if it were any different, since as many people have pointed out before, anyone who can predict share prices with any accuracy would be come richer than Buffett (who says he can't predict them either - we are in good company!).

Whenever I see someone try to predict share prices, my immediate reaction is usually that they are a ramper and should be ignored (the above post is obviously not a ramp, otherwise the prediction would be much more aggressive). In such cases, a good idea is to take the opposite position of the prediction as the prediction contradicts what the market is saying. This is why these kinds of predictions are almost wrong.

DRO predictions fall into exactly that situation. Every single prediction in the past couple of months on HotCopper has predicted an upward movement (some above 80c per share). Every single one has proved incorrect. In fact, the poster above should be congratulated for offering the most accurate of all of these predictions. This has nothing to do with DRO, it is the nature of share market predictions.

If people, do want to make these kinds of guesses (they are no more than that). They will generally get far better result if they are listening to the market. If a share price is pushing strongly in one direction it is more likely to continue moving in that direction (note more likely - not will) but things can change very quickly, particularly before or after news.

What DRO is telling the market is that it is in a holding pattern. Low volume, big orders on both the buy and sell side. I did a trade this week in DRO by listening to what the market was telling me. I didn't know (or particularly care) that the trade would get done and I didn't base it on a belief that I knew where the share price was going. I placed a sell at 31c. I chose that price because there were many sell orders at slightly higher prices. It got about 90% filled on Wednesday (and never completely filled as the price dropped). I took a risk that the market would not continue to rise based on what the market was telling me. I could easily have been wrong (I often am) but that would have meant I would have walked away with a good profit and moved on to other pastures. I had managed the downside.

After I placed a buy order for a few more shares than I'd sold at 29c using the principle of listening to what the market was telling me. I got 0.5c in front of the big orders. I liked the stock and wanted to get back in. Again I listened to the market rather than tried to guess. When it looked like I wasn't going to get back in I moved the order up to 29.5c (it turned out it would have been filled at 29c. I was wrong again. It's ok. I'm used to it). It got filled yesterday and I increased my holding by about 5% and again managed the downside.

This trade worked out. Many don't. There was also nothing to get excited about here - a 5% gain on a very small holding. I just try to be conservative and stack the odds a little in my favour. Successful investors do not focus on the big winners. They focus on avoiding the big losers - and that's hard to do in the small cap space (most of my money is in large caps).

My experience is that if I have a very different opinion to the market it is almost always me that is wrong, not the market (I think this applies to most people). Sorry about the rant... have I told you how much I dislike share price predictions?