you might be right but overall ALK will still be small producer...

you might be right but overall ALK will still be small producer with decent part of the production locked in hedges that command terrible price.

hence why I say exploration success will be the main driver for the SP. If they make another discovery at NMPP and they also confirm the zone around 108 & 094 is big enough to warrant UG mining will trigger lot of interests from lot of JV or TO suitors. It will signal Go Ahead to most big players to run their ruler over ALK.
Also, the price for any NMPP JV will jump significantly and if executed would mean ALK being left with lot of cash to explore other areas and perhaps to pay small special divi. And that will set the SP on fire as long as POG stays at these levels or moves higher.

If ALK did not had two trains full of hedges at ~ $2.8k then I would have agree with your point 100%. The hedge is making it hard for Roswell to make big impact right not. If POG continues to move higher then from around mid 2015 the production will start to play bigger role on the SP as long as ALK manages to grow the TGO resource and maintain around 10 year LOM.

my thoughts anyway....