@TB51 you need to focus on the mistake I made that will illude my detractors, to understand their real issue - I honestly disclosed today that I no longer held ZIP (until close - didn't think I'd be quite that lucky in buying back in so soon) after nearly a year of holding. Honest disclosure of position or sentiment. A weird concept for the trolls....
My last post before today 21 Feb (still a holder), discussing debt metrics with Tutor - more pumping
. But apparently I have been pumping the stock relentlessly and shamelessly to its $0.99 high today.
The irony is, whilst my early posts today after the $0.98/99 open had "Not Held", the usual trolls didn't even notice, as I was still discussing the merits of the business in fairly typical fashion for me and likely market intpretation of the earnings announcement, with reference to refinancing of debt particularly - even the most ardent of bulls cannot deny the Ares deal was at very poor rates. Again a foreign concept to the trolls discussing the bisiness with the same view irrisepctive of my personal position, held or not held.
Anyway, trying to stick to ZIP's results....Perhaps the early rally to $0.99 was from investors who got excited on the net $73 million profit without understanding one-offs (
a small $1 million net loss with adjustments backed out, around, if just short of likely expectations, of a very small positive half year before adjustments, sculpted from the companies own guidance). A selling profit point for more informed risk taking investors who dare to risk their longer term investment gains. I bought back into ZIP on close (much to my surprise with an order well below mkt) and will buy more if it comes lower. I am a bit of weirdo like that - buying lower and selling higher (after nearly a year of holding)....
and honestly disclosing it.
I wouldn't be surprised if the market waivers a bit over ZIP's debt refinancing due in 2024 - at least until they see better rates than the poor Ares deal (I suspect/hope other creditors will actually be attracted by the very high rates Ares acheived and offer down its eventual rates in competitive tender). If I am wrong, I miss out on building a bigger position again. Meanwhile I don't need to 'pump' the steadily impoving underlying business improvement that should hoipefully fundamentally underlie ZIP's longer-term share price growth aside from short-term fluctuation. The underlying improvement in business figures speak for themselves:
Half Yearly Revenue (2nd half calender year):
2023: +$430 mill
2022: +$334 mill
2021: +$302 mill
HY Profit/(Loss) afterincome tax (very lumpy with items/impairments):
2023: +$73 mill
2022: -($242 mill)
2021: -($154 mill)
Core Cash EBTDA (better reflection of underlying business):
2023: +$31 mill
2022:: -($33 mill)
2021: -($61 mill)
More than happy to be corrected but suspect whilst the results today confirmed the continued business improvement of the company, debt refinancing concerns and a net profit before adjusments probably coming in slightly under expectations, probably led to a fall in share price, after initial exuberant rally on a misinterpreted large net profit after tax - for those investors wondering why ZIP rallied then fall away so far, -19% off its highs.
(20min delay)