I take your example of DXB (painfully, as I sold at 0.15 and...

I take your example of DXB (painfully, as I sold at 0.15 and thinking 100% profit was good!) But DXB is on the lower side (550mil to get to phase III) and my example, IMU is on the higher side (8bill to get to phase III). I only used IMU to demonstrate, by way of example of actual possibility, my estimate was at least not "flawed" (as I was responded to by @rogerdat). I can provide many more examples, not to say my 1.5nil is low but to show it is at least not flawed. So, in my estimate of 1.5bill I did not use the higher side, tbh, it is a conservative estimate leaning on the lower side of the mean (in my experience of some 30 years of trading).

Again as I pointed out, my estimate was a "first order" calculation (to scientific term, meaning/accepting, there are other factors, but they are either arise in special cases or not having as much weight. In a sense it is a sanity calculation, not accurate but not wildly out.

But lets use your lower range number of shares (I would not rely on it though if I were to invest as it reflects hopefully not measured approach - that is you are hoping this will go the way of DBX). Anyhow, 550mil shares (like your example of DXB) to crunch through to get to phase II-III and reach a MC of 150mil (like your example DXB) means as SP of 27c for a Phase III biotech !!!! Do you think 7c is fair value for NSB at this point ... for someone who is looking long term? Of course I agree with @TerribleTadpole in that for short term trading it dose not matter as much as other trading/market factors come into play, e.g., being flavour of the day, exciting science, renewed management ...