"Any thoughts from that perspective?" – sheesh... there are so many unknowns that I wouldn't even attempt a "fair value" calculation. I would suggest that a risk/reward analysis is more fruitful for this company. Here are what I believe are the key risk factors:
| Upside (positive) | Downside (negative) |
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| 1 | Glaucoma is a very large, global market | Clinical trials in humans have not been commenced and EmtinB may fail to targets in a trial |
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| 2 | Available treatments focus on reducing intraocular pressure. There is no current treatment that addresses nerve damage, so EmtinB will be revolutionary if successful | FDA approval may be declined if there are contrary indications from the trial |
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| 3 | In vitro efficacy has been demonstrated | As far as I'm aware, Dr Keating has not previously achieved FDA approval |
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| 4 | In vivo efficacy has been demonstrated in the pig glaucoma model | Dr Keating is not an experienced manager or CEO, and is probably not the best person to take the company forward beyond FDA approval |
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| 5 | Intraocular injection delivers the drug directly to the treatment site, minimising systemic risks and side-effects and maximising delivery of the active constituent to the affected area | A lot of funding will be required for full development, which may result in significant dilution |
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| 6 | Dr Keating is an experienced clinical scientist |
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| 7 | Current funds are (or should be) sufficient to see the process through an initial trial and FDA approval |
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My guess (and it is only a guess) would put the odds of a successful trial and initial FDA approval at maybe 10%. That aligns reasonably well with my other guess of share price reaching 30c on positive trial results and 50c on FDA approval. This is why I've taken a position: risk/reward seems well balanced to me.
I will still trade this if I see movements that I feel are excessive. There's nothing wrong if an "investor" pockets some extra cash along the way. Remember sell/hold isn't a binary choice. You can increase and decrease your holding as things develop.
My general strategy to minimise dilution is to flip most of my holding when a share purchase plan is announced, before the price reverts to the SPP price. There is generally an hour or two to get this done if the announcement is made during trading hours. I dread SPPs announced out of hours. I then put the proceeds of the sale toward replacing my shares at the SPP price or lower, if the price dips enough on the market. If I'm bullish I might tip in some extra cash to bulk up. If the SPP includes renounceable rights, I generally trade the hell out of those things in the first few hours after they appear on the market. You almost always see people selling their rights for a few cents to pick up the free cash. Later on, buyers generally appear who will pay a proportionate price. Sometimes you can make 5x on a small amount of money. At the very least you can often make enough trading the rights to exercise a some of them without putting your hand in your own pocket.
I'm floating these as general ideas – things to consider – not advice about what to do.
(20min delay)
