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13/03/24

22:59

Post #: 72872373
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Originally posted by zebster: ↑

Ok, thanks for that. The Dec quarterly showed $4.2M net operating & investing cash burn (i.e. excluding the effects of inbound financing cash from the the Aug raising which can muddy the underlying CF waters). This was within range of avg. compared against the most recent 18 months, but that all changes this quarter, imo.
When I add-back the $465k R&D tax refund rec'd in Jan (i.e. mentioned as an after close-off inflow in the recent quarterly) to the $3M end-Dec balance and then subtract a trimmed quarterly spend for this March quarter of, say, ~$2.5M I get c.$1M on-hand at the end of this month.
The Board confirmed in today's Half-Yearly that inbound cash would be required during the next quarter. I agree.
I think they've strung it out as long as possible in the hope that sentiment would ~~materially~~ sufficiently improve in either the trade sale space or in capital markets (for a raising). Fair enough. My guess is a raising attempt sometime between now and the first week of April.
Whatever the precise form it takes, it will almost certainly need to involve a (majority) component that is conditional upon (EGM) SH approval because they currently only have the headroom to issue another ~200-210m shares (i.e. ~800k - $1.2M, depending on the discount to VWAP) without SH ratification for the much larger chunk. Naturally that all assumes there's an appetite.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a heavy consol as part of all that. I would, however, be very surprised (and even more deeply concerned) to see any form of lending deal (think secured note, possibly (predatory) CN).

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I don't know whether to be ashamed at the inferior quality of my analysis, or proud that my low effort version still came up with basically the same conclusion

Love your work Zeb!

POS Price at posting: 0.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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I don't know whether to be ashamed at the inferior quality of my...

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I don't know whether to be ashamed at the inferior quality of my...

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