You could be right LoC.
Though I know that Tulla are down a crap ton of money compared to their total investment over the past 10+ years (not just capital lost, but opportunity cost of doing better with the capital they had). From memory they took on the debt from the Norseman failure (went under). Then drilled etc for years, before PNR took 50%. Then... well... since then it's been a horror run. At a guess, TUL are down around $100m. So perhaps base case they need PNR to have an market cap around $500m to break even. I guess at this point, no-one was going to offer PNR shareholders that amount, but any entity could have likely aquired upwards of 20% for less than $0.06 (so many shares overhand at that price). I am 99% sure, the share price will only really move when it breaks free of $0.06.
I had a quick look at my earlier optimism about TUL and.... did not take long to turn to pessimism, to... frustration to.. outright anger at just how badly PNR have 'ramped up' then project (once TUL/PNR merged). Just to be clear, there is good reason for the market to not believe anything the MD says.
First gold was poured in Oct 2022.... yeah, 16 months ago and they may just just hit commercial production last month (so lets be kind and say just 15 months).
I think I posted a long time ago how much PNR had spent on Norseman, let alone the combined entity. My guess... at least $400m to get to this point.
But of course, that is why a buyer now... gets all that sunken investment for peanuts.
No doubt about it
@wassa the move in POG has to be helped PNR big time. If WGX is levered to the POG, PNR is even far more so! (relatively speaking).
Very interesting to hear what Insto's view as the main catalyst for investing (simple and logical to be fair, but.... then they will hopefully miss a lot of the upside coming in late, risk/reward). I def have less than 4m shares, but... enough that it would change things for my family if PNR can achieve a $1 Billion market cap (it would if it had Luke C as MD!!
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I don't think I have a clear exit strategy, well.. unless they continue to stuff everything up, but I feel that risk is receding, with more ore sources becoming available which... has been the main issue the whole time. If at some point, the valuation becomes too frothy, then I leave. EMR has been a good example for me, the team there is basically second to none, but at some point, I just started taking profits.. and again and gain because it just would not stop rising (market cap/valuation). For better or worse, some of my EMR profits sit in PNR (yet to be seen if the risk/reward was worth it). Norseman with the right mine plan, 3+ U/G operations and the right team, could be a market darling.
I know
@Joelstaralso mentioned this in the past, but almost every mid tier must have at least taken a glance at PNR. Yet... here we sit.
RMS seem happy enough to spend $1 billion plus to achieve a 175k p.a acquisition, but... not $400m (I think that would have perhaps got most shareholders to sell up over the past 12 months or so). Nor GOR, nor SLR, nor WGX nor..... etc.
PNR is like a mini WGX (in the sense that they could I believe have up to 4-5 different U/G operations concurrently feeding the plant). We know the plant can be expanded to 1.5mtpa+, so throughput is not really an issue, it's grade. Plus, any acquirer will have the benefit of the fully unhedged production, which would clearly benefit the likes of RMS (even with it's hedging % slowly reducing).
Again, hat tip to your spreadsheet. Would be so interesting to see what conclusions could be made about each company, in regards to market moves, POG, production performance etc. Though I suppose overall, I have a feeling management premium, production performance and past performance are key.
Do you have further columns in regards to future production, reduction in hedging etc? As RED for example, is likely to look very different in 12 months time.
Could spend all day discussing the list!
(20min delay)