I don't think anyone needs to be in a great hurry to buy SDI;...

  1. 17,804 Posts.
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    I don't think anyone needs to be in a great hurry to buy SDI; not because of any fundamental problem with the company nor even with the debt being taken on board to fund Project Montrose but, as I have referenced in previous posts, because of the potential for delays in getting the project approvals.

    By all accounts - not just SDI, but other companies, too - the state of Victoria is not at all business-friendly and it is taking ages to get things approved by the civil service bureaucracy (case in point, SDI had a single tree growing on the site of the new factory and to get permission to remove the tree took something like 9 months, and cost the company tens of thousands of dollars to pay for arborists, entomologists, hydrologists and who knows what other "experts" to write reports about the impact on the environment if the tree was removed.)

    I have little doubt that once this new factory is built, it will support an acceleration in top-line growth accompanied with very good margin expansion, which will make the bottom-line hockey-stick for a number of years (FY28 to Fy30).

    But unfortunately this risks being dead money for a while, for probably at least another year, I fear. Of course, a more mature investment approach might be to say, "That's just finessing things. The factory will be built, and who cares if it is delayed by a further six or twelve months; it will be built, so you may as well just get set now and eliminate the risk of things going seamlessly and then you end up chasing the stock at a price that is 30% or 40% higher".

    Hard to know what to do, which is why I am sitting with a half-pregnant position, thinking I've at least hedged my bets.

    ,
    Last edited by madamswer: 14/03/25
 
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