Weekly data and thoughts..Please note that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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Sorry this week stock specific analysis and numbers not there as was away
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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Review of 3 scenario of short-term play as outlined in my post on Wednesday before US markets opened?
In nutshell -

• Scenario 1 - Odds of CCJ making a top at 62.27 on Tuesday May 27th of CYCLE 1 2025, which may mean it might go much lower, up to 20%, before next cycle. Odds that day I felt was 25%. Based on another 3 days trading in US and 2 in ASX, I feel odds have increased to 40%.
• Scenario 2 - CCJ makes a new high in the next couple of days from Wednesday. Odds was 25%. Now it is 0% as that has been nulled. CCJ did not make a new high in next few days , So either its playing Scenario 1 or Scenario 3
• Scenario 3 - Chances of CCJ doing a back test around 55/56, or a number I had 56.24 before doing a new high above 62.55. Since Wednesday play, CCJ has eased a bit, reached 57.63 on Wednesday. So there may still be room to fall a bit more before reversing, or 57.63 could be the back test level. It supports consolidation theory , as before Wednesday CCJ had gained around 20% in 2 trading days, which looked unsustainable, based on previous patterns. That day I wrote the odds of this scenario playing out was 50%. I feel now its 60% probable this may play out.

Review of topping of CYCLE 1 2025 statement?
Last year on May 31st 2024, CCJ made a new 52 week high at 62.55. I have been writing for several months that CCJ (and the sector) may follow similar pattern and make a top from end of May to mid-June. On Tuesday CCJ reached 62.27, falling just short of a new high. Its interesting why the big players/algos did not cross 62.55. Maybe they feel there is another big leg still pending for this cycle and left it for another day. A number which I have been writing for few months is that CCJ may reach high 60s if it makes a new high. That play is still open at this stage. Or 62.27 may remain as top. To be seen.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -
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• CCJ - Neary flat for the week, slight down, moved from 58.69 to 58.53, with 62.27 high on Tuesday.
• BOE/PDN - BOE was flat for the week like CCJ and PDN gained 8% of the week - Last week PDN was done when others were gaining, so it has averaged out now after this week play
• Spot Futures - nearly flat for the week and now sitting on 71.85, last week 71.55, but above psychological 70

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So what are the numbers telling? We are either in consolidation mode or we may have topped for this cycle. The theory around consolidation has better odds, but still needs to play, no guarantee.

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Is there a pattern in this rise? As I have been writing last few weeks, we seem to be in Cycle 1 2025 (details of cycle in post of 2nd May). Last few years we have had a pattern where we do a topping around this time. Till now the pattern has played near perfect, if we take margin of error into account. But many feel that this time the topping may not be like previous years - like a decent drop from the top. Rather small drop and then plateauing. Its possible. Every year conditions are different. U macro from supply demand is getting closer towards some supply squeeze, although there are no clear data available to firmly believe that. But based on available data, demand is strong and going up. What we don't know is the secondary supply. How much is there? How long can it service the utility before they become nervous? With US signing up for nuclear including SMRs, the demand should go up. Downside is that whole U industry is very small, not even close to 1 big tech company. So can be easily played. Hence we see volatility and all these cycles. Stocks would gain 100% or even more, and then give away, sometimes all the gains. But lets hope this time its different. At least the pattern mirroring a rise during this period is happening - so lets take that positive first.
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Personally, On Wednesday I felt that CCJ may back test now, so there may be a drop of around 10/15% for CCJ. Till now CCJ has a drop from 62.27 to 57.63, around 7.5%. I had got out of fair few of my U stocks (a portion) on Wednesday. I have not yet bought back. I am waiting to see if Scenario 1 plays out - then we could have CCJ dropping 20%+, or we are in consolidation mode, and we could get another 20%+ move in forward direction. Next week may tell. I am waiting at this stage. Second time I have played short term with a big portion in this cycle.
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So what may happen next week? ASX U stocks played very strongly on Friday. On Thursday night CCJ had dropped around 2%, so most ASX U stocks opened lower. Among big stocks, either by end of day they had recovered to fell flat or some finished in moderate green. Looked like buy the dip in play. This is usually reserved for stocks that are to go much higher in medium term, based on punter sentiment. On Friday CCJ had another drop. This time 1%. So two crucial plays on Monday - first will ASX U stocks still be resilient and play buy the dip. Second is CCJ going to the level of 55/56 before reversing or will reverse from here itself. The short activity has reduced but BOE/PDN still 1/2 on ASX list of highest shorted, and 6 big ASX U stocks in top 22. So the shorters have eased but not given away. So their play and tactics may also provide some direction,, as they are big players. I am hoping my Scenario 3 plays out and we reverse shortly. All the best.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:..
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