Weekly data and thoughts..Please note that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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PEN still not trading, so nothing to write for trading pattern of PEN.
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Key Numbers to watch for stock share price?
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If it goes to plan, then we may see higher prices. These are the numbers I feel could be in play -
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410 - First level, very good chance of that happening (ACHIEVED, reached 411, 413, 416 on 3 separate days)
432 - Second level, reasonable chance (ACHIEVED, reached 444)
500+ - There are no key numbers between 430 to 600, so anything can happen.
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If things don't go to plan, it needs to hold around 370 and then 350 - they acted as key zones in the pullback.
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What can be short term play?

• Scenario 1 - Odds of CCJ confirming top at 62.27, made on Tuesday May 27th of CYCLE 1 2025, which may mean it might go much lower, up to 20% drop, before next cycle. Odds I feel after play this week is reduced to 25%.
• Scenario 2 - Was my earlier scenario that CCJ breaks up on 62.27 within couple of days. That has not happened.
• Scenario 3 - Chances of CCJ doing a back test around 55/56, or a number I had 56.24 before doing a new high above 62.55. This week play has re-enforced that likelihood that this may happen. I feel odds as good as 75% now. So in a week and a half, I feel the odds have increased from 50 to 75% now.

Review of topping of CYCLE 1 2025 statement?
Last year on May 31st 2024, CCJ made a new 52 week high at 62.55. I have been writing for several months that CCJ (and the sector) may follow similar pattern and make a top from end of May to mid-June. On Tuesday week CCJ reached 62.27, falling just short of a new high. Since then it dropped to 57.63 - which is 7.5% from top. So till now, the play has been very strong. A drop up to 10% is very normal. Its between 11 to 20% that it can become very iffy. Over 20%, most likely its done. There is one more week to go based on my original statement of mid-June. But that was indicative. Also, who knows, we may not have a topping this year - which means it will never drop more than 20% from its high. Its possible, so best to follow price action.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few months -
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• CCJ - Moderate gain, moved from 58.63 to 58.53, with 60.42, a gain of just over 3% for the week. More importantly, Friday was the highest finish for the week, and just shy of highest finish of this cycle at 60.47. Also, this week didn't go below the pullback of 57.63 from last week. So all in all, very good numbers.
• BOE/PDN - BOE lost 3% and PDN gained 2% of the week - small play happening. Also PDN which was lagging BOE is slowly catching up.
• Spot Futures - on weekly slight drop, around 1.5%, last week 71.55, this week 70.50, but above psychological 70

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So what are the numbers telling? We are more likely in consolidation mode. Most ASX U stocks are waiting for a catalyst, which could come from CCJ making a new high above 62.55. The bigger catalyst would be some news, like Trump gave, that gives straight 5 to 10% gain in a day. At this stage CCJ is travelling very well. In my earlier post when I was writing about pullback, I had mentioned why we need the pullback. To consolidate the gain. CCJ played in early 50s for 2 weeks, then got here. One of the reason it has held the gains and not rushed back to 50. On Monday, CCJ will complete 2 weeks after first reaching 60s. So again a very healthy play which says that if we get a rise, it may be sustained. Last year this time when CCJ made a new 52 week high (CYCLE 1 2024), it dropped over 10% within 2 weeks. Then when it made a new 52 week high on Dec 6 2024 (CYCLE 2 2024) at 62.55, it dropped over 10% within a week. That has not happened with the current high of cycle at 62.27. Hence its looking very likely that we may get a higher high above 62.27 in this cycle.

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Is there a pattern in this rise (repeat from last week, as its still valid)? As I have been writing last few weeks, we seem to be in Cycle 1 2025 (details of cycle in post of 2nd May). Last few years we have had a pattern where we do a topping around this time. Till now the pattern has played near perfect, if we take margin of error into account. But many feel that this time the topping may not be like previous years - like a decent drop from the top. Rather small drop and then plateauing. Its possible. Every year conditions are different. U macro from supply demand is getting closer towards some supply squeeze, although there are no clear data available to firmly believe that. But based on available data, demand is strong and going up. What we don't know is the secondary supply. How much is there? How long can it service the utility before they become nervous? With US signing up for nuclear including SMRs, the demand should go up. Downside is that whole U industry is very small, not even close to 1 big tech company. So can be easily played. Hence we see volatility and all these cycles. Stocks would gain 100% or even more, and then give away, sometimes all the gains. But lets hope this time its different. At least the pattern mirroring a rise during this period is happening - so lets take that positive first.
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Personally, Last week I wrote that I was expecting a pullback, so had got out of fair few of my U stocks (a portion) on Wednesday previous week. On Tuesday this week I wrote in some threads that I bought back everything I had let go, plus more. Currently I am maxed out in my U play. I am just hoping that there is no rude surprise, but the odds support us. So lets see. I still do trade nearly every day, a small portion, but that is not a big win or loss, more like a game trying to pick highs and lows on or within few days. Overall it doesn't make much difference to my holding.
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So what may happen next week? This week could be a defining week. CCJ would have completed required 2 weeks of consolidation of 60. So period wise it could be ready to move. There may be likelihood that this period goes on for another week or 2. ASX U have also done their consolidation. They have all come back from their highs of this cycle, but not panicking. More a cautious play at this stage. So ASX U stocks are also ready, if they get a signal. June is also a period of tax sell for ASX stocks, not sure how it will affect us. June is also a very weak month in general markets in US. But till now its playing steady. Some factors to keep in mind. But lets, hope CCJ makes a new high above 62.55 and marches towards 70. All the best.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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