Ann: Half Yearly Report and Accounts, page-120

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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PEN still not trading, so nothing to write for trading pattern of PEN.
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Review of topping of CYCLE 1 2025 statement?

• Point 1 topping - For last 3 months, I have been writing that CCJ (and sector) may top between end of May to mid June as part of first cycle of 2025 - Current situation - Not sure about topping yet because we are still playing. But some stocks, including CCJ at a 52 week high
• Point 2 new high for CCJ - I had also been writing that as part of this, the odds of CCJ make a new high above 62.55 is very good, and the first level to reach will be high 60s for it - This has certainly happened. This week CCJ crossed 62.55 and made a high of 68.15

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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few months -
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• CCJ - Monster week - moved from 60.42 to 66.66, a gain of over 10% for the week
• BOE/PDN - BOE lost 4% and PDN lost 1% of the week - small play happening, but different play from CCJ which is in ascendancy. Also PDN which was lagging BOE is slowly catching up.
• Spot Futures - on weekly slight drop, around 1%, last week 70.50, this week 69.75, but now below psychological 70

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So what are the numbers telling?

• Mixed signals and disconnect between some stocks.
• On the one hand, CCJ, the leader of the industry, going from strength to strength, doing a new 52 week high and not yet showing signs of topping.
• On the other hand a lot of U stocks still stuck in first gear, or should I say, breaks have been applied and not showing same strength or playing similar to CCJ
• Last couple of weeks I was writing CCJ seems to be in consolidation mode. 2 weeks of consolidation had happened. So time wise it was ready, and it did break out of consolidation this week
• CCJ pattern has been very consistent - consolidation and then a big move, and then repeat. Same play from in 50s, around 60, etc
  
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Why other U stocks not playing like CCJ/URA?

• There seems to be a disconnect between some stocks which are making new 52 week highs and some that are stagnating or easing down from current position
• One of the reasons most U stocks are lagging is because they are thinking we may be topping here. In previous years, this the time the sector has topped. From here it goes in a decline for next couple of months before making a low sometime in August. Many may be aware of this cycle. And many may be pre-empting that scenario and getting out now (or not adding more).
• Second could be that sector is very volatile. Who knows CCJ could drop 10% in a day. So many punters want more confirmation that the higher price achieved by CCJ can be sustained, before making a move in other U stocks.
• This disconnect was also very visible around 2 years back. I was writing every week then about that. That time the disconnect was more stark - between US and ASX U stocks. US U stocks were doing a runner but ASX U stocks lagging big time. This time many US U stocks are also not following CCJ in tandem
• Uranium is still very highly shorted stock. The big 6 ASX U stocks are within the top 17 of all ASX stocks shorted. BOE/PDN rank in top 2. So shorters may be making it difficult for the rise in some U stocks to happened. Probably a controlled play, with some exiting, gradual decline in shorting, and then letting it go, so there could be a lag in rise
• In my spreadsheet, I update 52 week high number every few months. I updated it this week. All the 52 week high number, on average decreased by 30 to 50% from previous number. That means the play in last 52 weeks is much weaker than previous period, which is very concerning
• Punters may have done better just playing ATOM (the URA ETF). It made a new 52 week high this week. Has done better than most other ASX U stocks. Sometimes playing in ETF is not bad (you play sector rather than the vagaries of individual stocks)

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Personally, Last week I wrote that I had maxed out in U stock play. I also wrote that I do a play a bit nearly every day. I am still playing U stocks as I have not yet seen the signs of topping, especially by CCJ. And I feel if CCJ continues to move up, other U stocks may catch up, hopefully. What I have seen now is that many U stocks are doing a wilder swing, around 15/20% now between the highs and pullbacks. I have increased the amount I play for these swings. The ASX U stock play this week was concerning, first red flag I could see. So keeping an eye on that.
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So what may happen next week?

• Last week I had written it would be defining moment for CCJ as it had done consolidation and ready to move. It made its move this week.
• CCJ gained around 10% for the week and difference between low of consolidation and current high made is around 18% (57.63 to 68.18).
• CCJ made the high on Monday. Then dropped around 8% from high on Tuesday. In last consolidation, the drop from high to low was around 7.5%. So the drop consistent with how CCJ is playing - which means it can consolidate in mid to high 60s and then make a move to 70s. Odds are not bad.
• CCJ finished in 66s on 4 days this week, which is a very strong play
• Shorts are declining for U stocks but not much. BOE has dropped a bit but still number 1 shorted stock on ASX , but other 5 big ASX U stocks are not declining. That has to come down
• On Monday, US U stocks had a moderate to good day, so should be a positive start on Monday - it is to be seen if it is actually going to end positive or not, based on this week's play. But lets hope so.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:..
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