Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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PEN still not trading, so nothing to write for trading pattern of PEN.
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Review of KEY indicators?
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few months -
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- CCJ - MONSTER week, added over 7% this week, with 2.5% last week, 10% week before - moved from 68.27 to 73.27
- BOE/PDN - GREAT week, gain of 5% for BOE (last week 20%) and 9% (last week 17%) for PDN -
- Spot Futures - MONSTER week, moved from 75.90 to 79.05, inching towards psychological 80, which will be scaled now it seems, next we.
So what are the numbers telling? (similar to last week)
- U sector overall playing very strongly
- There are no clear signs that we may have topped or topping,
- CCJ made a great move last week, and has continued to go from strength to strength
- ASX U stocks had a great week on the back of a monster last week
- Spot price is also making a move. For several years 80 (with inflation could be 85 now) has been touted as a number for companies to be profitable/to reopen, its inching towards 80 now
Personally, Last week I had mentioned I had got out around 80% of U. Added a few this week, some stocks still at similar level I got out, couple have moved ahead. Looks like still some legs for this rise. Spot will be taken over 80, which may provide some impetus. One thing I don't like about CCJ is that its not doing consolidation. It did that in 50s, then 60, but since then hasn't done. So if something goes wrong, there may be a steep fall. Also CCJ in under 3 months has moved from 35 to 75, nearly 115% gain. Its not a small stock, over $32b US dollars, so nearly $50b AUD. For it to make such a big gain in such a short time is spectacular, but also raises question - can the next 3 months repeat last 3 months?
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So what may happen next week?
- Last week I thought CCJ may consolidate before moving towards mid 70s. I was wrong. It has moved ahead and made 75 this week
- Based on what is happening, most expect that this rise will continue.
- There is a slight disconnect between my trading pattern where I felt a consolidation and then move up is better, but its not happening. So I am just playing the price action, but very cautiously. Before last week I was very confident and put nearly all on U stocks. Now I have much less, but watching and adding slowly if price action is supported.
- Spot should cross 80 this week.
- CCJ could make a move towards 80. Sometime I feel CCJ price and Spot price are in a race - very close price range in 70s, who wants to be ahead?
- On Monday, US U stocks had another good day, so hopefully a bright start on Monday
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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