Weekly data and thoughts..Please not that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
.
Please not that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
.
.
.Uranium Sector Overview -
.

From a weekly perspective, PEN had another big drop, from 77 to 66.5, around 14%. Last week it dropped 11, before that 13%. So in 3 weeks down from 100 to 66. One of the worst performing stocks, even though others too have dropped. It also made a new 52 week low of 65.5, it had made another one last week at 76, before that at 86. So something is not right. I bought one third of my stocks last week, another one third this week, but on PEN. I was very tempted to buy but have held back. Reason being PEN price action could be determined by its own play - towards production. So now 2 factors have to improve, U macro and PEN play. With other U stocks, if U macro turns, they will go up. So less risk there. Just my opinion, so please dyor. On the flip side some may feel that its own announcement could give much bigger rise. Possible, but the way play is happening, odds are not very high for that. But can happen.
.
Like last week, I still feel we may be bottoming around this level and time, a bit more below.
.
Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -

• CCJ - Gained 1.5% for the week, last week 41.83, this week 42.47, touched 40, but did not go below that, last week went to 39.31
• BOE/PDN - BOE was flat, PDN lost 1%, so similar play to other U stocks, but signs of plateauing
• Spot Futures - Lost around 1.3% - Moved from 64.65 to 63.80 this week,

.
So what are the numbers telling? CCJ held 40, did not make a new low of this phase. But many, or should I say most other U stocks made a new low of this phase in this week. Some seem to be getting back, but have not yet crossed the threshold. So overall still in a very weak zone. Spot Futures not providing any help, in fact going down still. Last few weeks I have been talking about clear signs that odds of going down very high. This week I feel the biggest odds may be to hold this level. This is still chance that it could lower, but few lower odds. So now I feel we are reaching an indecisive state. CCJ needs to get over 45, and stay above that, to provide first signs of reversal.

.

Last several weeks I have been talking about signs of weakness. This week I felt and writing, we in an indecisive state. Why is that -

.

• CCJ gained 1.5%, BOE/PDN - flat - So stocks are not going down now unlike last week, for now
• Many stocks have now risen close to or over 10% from its recent lows - CC/PDN around 8%, BOE 15% above its recent low
• The ETF of URNM too did not make a new low this week, a play similar to CCJ but only around 5% from its low

.
.
There are still some danger signs though -

• Previously we used to get some bumps, Kaz decline production, Russia ban, US initiative etc - no big positive event/announcement has happened for quite sometime to give a boost or arrest the decline. In fact opposite, Sprott may sell and bring down price
• I still feel the sector is played by some big entities. Its not very big. Lot of numbers are black box - no one knows clearly, So easy to create a hype, or a drop/gain and play the innocent
• Trump drama is keeping general markets in check, anything deteriorating there will not help the cause.
• Spot Futures still declining

.
As I mentioned last week, reason I am playing now is am playing a pattern - like all other things, sometimes it works sometimes not. So its all about odds. At this stage I feel odds are better for the pattern to play out. Last week I wrote about how U stocks make 50 to 100% gains and then give away. In a very cyclical manner. Sometimes every 6 months. If one looks at the numbers, some may think its a planned activity, the precision and repeated behaviour. We don't know what is the cause, but I do numbers, and I can see a clear pattern. I know I can't change, so have adapted and play to this pattern.
.
.
So what may happen next week? On Friday US U stocks were mixed but CCJ gained 1.5%. General markets big green. So a bright start on Monday, then slightly tentative in the afternoon waiting for overnight US play.

.

.
Here is the Figures for the Week:.
.
.