Weekly data and thoughts..Please not that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please not that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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From a weekly perspective, PEN had another moderate gain, from 66.5 to 74, around 11%. So after 3 weeks of double digit losses, finally a gain, a moderate one, but still in double digits. So a welcome change for holders. Lets hope its the beginning. I still remember playing PEN around 35/26 few years back, in old numbers it reached around 3.1, so lost over 90%, that's a big loss. I am still not playing PEN as mentioned before. Reason being PEN price action could be determined by its own play - towards production. So now 2 factors have to improve, U macro and PEN play. With other U stocks, if U macro turns, they will go up. So less risk there. Just my opinion, so please dyor. On the flip side some may feel that its own announcement could give much bigger rise. Possible, but the way play is happening, odds are not very high for that. But can happen.
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CCJ Pattern - Before I give other numbers, just a quick recap of CCJ play from one year back. This is only if one is interested in patterns. I am but I can understand there is no guarantee things will play accordingly, so for many it may not be relevant and one can skip.

• As I mentioned before sector had bottomed in March last year including CCJ.
• This year it has gone below 40, to 39.31, which could possibly be the bottom of this cycle, this March. Its coming down from 62.55.
• Exactly one year back, CCJ finished at 43.19. On Friday it closed 44.53, so similar level, though one year has passed. In between, last year CCJ went to 35, it went to 62, but came back where it started
• The journey last year from this point for CCJ was, first it played around this level for few days, before reaching 50 - it took 2 weeks.
• Then from 50, first test of 47
• Then again reach 50, another test of 45 - this was the real test of 45 hold. This whole process took around 5 weeks
• Then on May 31, after around 9 weeks from this time, it made a new 52 week high at 56.24. That was the end of Cycle 1 of 2024.
• In June 2024, Cycle 2 of 2024 started.
• On August 5, it made a new 52 week low at 35.43. This was below March low. This took another 9 weeks to make a low.
• Then after 4 months, Dec 6, it made a new 52 week high of 62.55. That was the end of Cycle 2 of 2024.
• After Dec 6 last year, we are in Cycle 1 of 2025
• CCJ has made a low 39.31 on March 4 2025. This could be the low of this cycle, but no final confirmation yet.
• Will we make a new 52 week high in another 9 weeks - end of May? It is big call as new 52 week high would have to be over 62.55
• Have we made the low of this cycle? Odds are very good based on trading patterns of last few years- except dramatic event, stock market crash etc

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Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -

• CCJ - Gained around 5% for the week, last week 42.47, this week 43.53, low of 42.38, high of 45.81
• BOE/PDN - mixed play - BOE gained 25% for the weekly, biggest weekly gain I think so, PDN gained 2%, but had news around rain stopping production
• Spot Futures - gained around 2% - Moved from 63.80 to 65.05 this week,

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So what are the numbers telling? Last week I wrote that biggest odds are that this level will be held, meaning we may possibly have seen the bottom of this cycle. This week's trading has not confirmed it, but it was more positive than negative. In fact, many U stocks are reaching semi-euphoria state. Many have already risen 25 to 50% from their recent lows. Its good to see that. But we don't want to reach euphoria state. In most cases, if and when we reach euphoria state, it also marks the top of the cycle. So lets hope we don't reach there soon. Slow and steady may also hold the gains. Keep doing back tests. Keep making gains, holding, and the next one. Then only I feel we can make a big gain, like 100% + in this cycle. I will feel comfortable if CCJ gets over 45 and stays above that. Till then, I feel we are not sure, anytime down pressure can come. I have provided last years trading pattern. I have mostly been playing that.

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Why am I saying we are reaching semi-euphoria state -

• For me, as I have been writing for years, CCJ and Spot price are the biggest two indicators of price action
• CCJ is only around 10% above its low
• Spot price is only about 5% from its lows
• BOE rose nearly 50% from its lows, AGE/AEE 40-45%, BMN/DYL/LOT around 30%
• Punters already thinking something very big may happen, sooner than later

Personally, as I have been mentioning a few times, I am playing the pattern. One other thing that I do is usually rotate my U stocks. Just like a race, some horses will be out in front first. Some may come back later. So usually rotate from stocks which have made bigger gains to those who are in the lower end. A rise of 30 to 50% is a threshold I play before taking some off. As part of that I did took some off this week. Some I rotated, but holding a bit in case we see a small dip before continuing on the surge. In a rising market, the best case could be to buy and hold. But I like to trade, pick up small ups and downs, more like a game as well, so do all these.
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So what may happen next week? On Friday US U stocks were slightly down. CCJ made another attempt at 45, but could not hold. General markets were mostly neutral. So we could have a tentative start on Monday.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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