Weekly data and thoughts..Please not that all my views are for...

Weekly data and thoughts.
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Please not that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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From a weekly perspective, PEN had another moderate drop, from 74 to 68.5. Last week it moved from 66.5 to 74, so has nearly given back last week's gain. Downside, 62.5 the 52 week low. Upside, first play 77, its a tough one to get over. I am still not playing PEN as mentioned before. Reason being PEN price action could be determined by its own play - towards production. So now 2 factors have to improve, U macro and PEN play. With other U stocks, if U macro turns, they will go up. So less risk there. Just my opinion, so please dyor. On the flip side some may feel that its own announcement could give much bigger rise. Possible, but the way play is happening, odds are not very high for that. But can happen.
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Last week I had gone into detail pattern of cycle of CCJ (and in affect most U stocks). So won't go into detail this week, but commentary is similar, can check my last week post for any reference.
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Another week has passed. We are still not sure what the next leg looks like. Even if its to go up or down. Top 2 shorted stocks in ASX are U stock. There are 3 in top 10, 5 in top 20. These shorters are not some general punters who have done a big mistake. They are better qualified than ordinary punters, including some big houses with big pockets doing this. So not to be trifled and ignored. Last 2 years they were shorting all Li stocks big time. Many didn't believed, even laughed at them initially, most die-hards ignored it. But the shorters came out right. Last 2 years has been the worst for Li macro and stocks. Something to keep in mind.
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Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -

• CCJ - Lost around 6% for the week, last week 43.53, this week 41.83, low of 41.62, high of 46.21
• BOE/PDN - huge drop - BOE lost 17% and PDN 15%
• Spot Futures - lost around 1% - Moved from 65.05 to 64.35 this week,

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So what are the numbers telling? Last several weeks I have been saying, we will only get confirmation, once CCJ gets over 45 and stays above 45. That has not yet happened. I had also written that by end of last week we were reaching a semi-euphoria state. So I was expecting a pulldown on odds. That has happened. So we continue to be in the chop zone, foe now. Uncertain/Indecisive play continues. We don't know yet if CCJ 39.31 in this cycle is the low. Next week should provide more direction.

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Why I wrote last week that we are reaching semi-euphoria state -

• For me, as I have been writing for years, CCJ and Spot price are the biggest two indicators of price action
• CCJ is only around 10% above its low
• Spot price is only about 5% from its lows
• BOE rose nearly 50% from its lows, AGE/AEE 40-45%, BMN/DYL/LOT around 30%
• Punters already thinking something very big may happen, sooner than later

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Personally, I have been buying this week. Last week I wrote that I felt a lot of stocks have moved ahead quite fast, where CCJ/Spot had not, so felt they had got ahead of themselves. This week provided opportunity to buy back those that I let go last week. Have done around two-thirds back, one third is left which I will see this week, hopefully, depending on numbers.
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So what may happen next week? On Friday US U stocks were down. CCJ is now getting closer towards 40 again. It has now done 4 red days in a row. It needs to hold 40, otherwise most stocks will have a decent slide down. General markets also big down. So we could have a very tentative start on Monday.

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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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