Weekly data and thoughts..
Please note that all my views are for short-term only, and I could be wrong, so please dyor...
.Please note that I was away for a month, also in very opposite time zone, so was not able to make any posts. This week's data, I have compared to a month back, so the change is for a month. From next week, I will have weekly data.
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I will also have a separate post showing the rise from the bottom of the current cycle, for me its CYCLE 1 2025 and possible targets for stocks I am playing
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.Uranium Sector Overview-
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From a monthly perspective, PEN had a small gain of 3%. On the weekly perspective, no change as its not trading. Not sure what is happening, but not looking great for PEN. Hopefully things turn around. Last several months I have been writing why I was not getting into PEN, and probably for the reasons things have panned out. But if a turnaround can be shown, it can do massive gains. We wait for more info. Overall U sector sentiments, CCJ has just gone past 45, finishing on 47 on Friday. Last few tops, it has made new highs. So to keep that tradition, it would need to go over 62.55. That will take some time. As long as sector is going up, it will be unusual to see any U stock going down. So I feel there is enough time to get more gains. Also PEN was sold down heavily. It was and is still in top 100 shorted stock on ASX. So its no surprise that when good times come, it will be a bigger winner. I will have some targets in another post where I show the rise of ASX U stocks in the Cycle 1 2025 in another post. Let the good times roll.
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Lets look at 3 key indicators that provide market direction for short term, same as I have been doing for last few weeks -
.- CCJ - Gained around 7% for the week, crucially above 45 now
- BOE/PDN - BOE gain of around 25% and PDN gain of around 12% - Very good play by big stocks
- Spot Futures - had very decent gain this week and now sitting on 69.80, just under psychological 70
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.So what are the numbers telling? We are on an ascendancy. For last few months I have talked about Cycles which we have seen last few years. I have written for last few months that there is decent chance we may top towards end of May (+/- week or two). It looks like we are on track for that. Although good gains have been made from recent low, there may still be room for more. Average gain is around 47% from its recent low across all ASX U stocks I track, with some like BOE already reached 90% gain from its recent lows. So good time to hold U stocks..
Is there a pattern in this rise? For those who read my posts, I have always talked about patterns. They help guide entry and exit, sometimes. It is to be used as a guide only, as every play is individual and carve its own path. I will talk about that pattern next. I know many playing strongly on fundamentals, so may not be relevant for them, so please ignore.
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Last few years we have been having around 2 cycles per year. I will just mention last year's cycles and show how we are tracking this year. I have used CCJ price action as it has closely followed the sector, including how most U stocks have played, broadly
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Cycle 1 2024 –
Low – 14thMarch 2024 – CCJ made low of 39.22, dropping from 51.22 high
High – 31stMay 2024 – CCJ made 56.24, a new all time high, rising from 39.22
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Cycle 2 2024 –
Low – 5thAugust 2024 – CCJ made 35.43, dropping from 56.24
High – 6thDecember 2024, CCJ made 62.55, a new all time high, rising from 35.43
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Cycle 1 2025 –
Low – 7thApril 2025 – CCJ made 35, dropping from 62.55
High – May End (+/- a week or two)
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Cycle 2 2025 –
Low – August 2025/September 2025
High – December 2025/January 2026
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So till now Cycle 1 2025 is playing broadly same as Cycle 1 2024, and even earlier years. We watch whether rest of the pattern plays out.
This is what I wrote on 4thApril - I expect U sector/stocks to reach their peak of this cycle closer towards end of May
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This is what I wrote on 7thMarch - Last week I wrote about how U stocks make 50 to 100% gains and then give away. In a very cyclical manner. Sometimes every 6 months. If one looks at the numbers, some may think its a planned activity, the precision and repeated behaviour. We don't know what is the cause, but I do numbers, and I can see a clear pattern. I know I can't change, so have adapted and play to this pattern.
..But why do we have this cyclical pattern for last few years? The main reason I feel is around Supply and Demand. But mainly because there is no credible data around it. Most people make a guess, so one would think, maybe possible to manipulate the narrative around it – can’t be verified. Also U sector is small. Some big players are making big money. For last few years, every year there is around 2 cycles. They take U stocks up. Then push it down. Then repeat it next year. It may stop, and the rise may stick, but hasn’t for last 4 years. So probability favours continuation of cyclical pattern. Create hype around supply, or US, Russia, Kaz, anything to create hype. Also push Spot up, not very difficult for big player/s. Then sell all in the high, then push Spot down, create negative sentiments, talk of enough supply, etc. And may be short most stocks. Once bottom reached, start again, the up narrative, the Spot price etc. Rinse and repeat. That's my theory, I could be wrong, so please dyor..
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.Personally,I am very deep into U play currently. I am playing for the pattern of Cycle 1 2025. But I will not assume. I will wait for the price action to confirm pattern before taking a decision. Because I still believe every play, every year could be different. Currently in ASX, I am playing 9 U stocks. Usually I like to trade a portion, but due to my travel and different time zone, I wasn't able to do much. That was a blessing in disguise. In a rising market, buy and hold usually works best. So I was lucky there..
.So what may happen next week? This week CCJ had a very good play. I have been writing for a while, few months, that only when CCJ gets over 45 and stays over 45, we could be somewhat certain that a bottom has been made. CCJ did get over 45 end of March, but could not hold. It went on to do a lower low on 7th April at 35. Not staying above 45 was an indicator that bottom may not have been made. This week it finished above 45 on all 5 days of the week, on Friday above 47. So good chance that 35 bottom has been made. Upside target, usually CCJ likes to make a new all time high after a bottom play. Last high was 62.55. So fair bit away, but possible. Lets see..
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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(20min delay)