In my case, my sentiment changed from none to sell before I sold, and then I split it into 2 parcels, with the smallest one last to go, as I wished (against all hope) that the last 4C would show a turnaround - but Hell NO.
In my experience people rarely declare exactly when they buy and when they sell; and it does not matter that much to me as well for 2 reasons:
1) this forum does not move the SP (as the most informative posts TEP and TTT have been consistently on the wrong side of SP development) 2) one should not look if someone holds or has a buy sentiment, but rather if the post makes sense - and then even this is dicey; very obviously.
One will observe that holders will have a more 'benign' view of events, while sellers exaggerate the 'dark' side.
If I look back of what went wrong in my thinking - it is mainly these things:
1) KTD / HLF is in essence a contract manufacturer with too low margins (and that is the nature of the business). I thought by growing turnover HLF would be able to profit from economies of scale and overcome the margin disadvantage. T/O grew really well over the years, but only at the expense of capital erosion. 2) Management is / was inept to harvest the fruits of vertical integration (first with Omniblend, then with THM) 3) Management was unable to create a brand that protected them via better margins. Here, A2M have it somewhat easier; to a degree also BUB with their branding. HLF - in reality - stands for nothing - as their own brands are too small within their output mix.
Furthermore, going forward, HLF's debt level is now too high for my liking. How are they going to pay back those millions? I am not against debt, but a company must be profitable to leverage the debt, return on capital should exceed the interest rate paid. This is undeniable over the longer term.
Longer term, mid term and short term, one has to think hard to find ANYTHING that HLF has going for at this moment. Of course there will be a ray of sunshine here and there in the next few months, but this ship is not floating, rather .... Buying in - now - is rather a punt (and good luck to the punter), but it is not investing.
With the accumulated results of the past management decisions, I would be surprised if the will be a turnaround soon. I fear the likelihood is rather a de-listing or a capital restructuring akin to what happened to Wattle Health (WHA) as it turned into Wellnex (WNX).
All in my opinion (and mainly written to my self to clarify my thinking).
All the best to the loyal holders. Good luck.
HLF Price at posting:
2.9¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
