@pete11,you are applying logic to validate the market pricing...

@pete11,you are applying logic to validate the market pricing mechanism. That is a mistake.

A couple of years ago, Mortgage Choice, a debt free commission based company fell from $1.80 to 70c. It made no sense except for the Hayne Royal commission recommendations. They were enough to spook the retail investors totally unaware of the underlying business model of recurring income.

There was no logic, a 10% + dividend, no debt and recurring income stream. I was not the only one who backed up the truck, many investors with intimate knowledge of the model did the same. Fingers cut? Absolutely, it was a wild ride but fun.

Lo and behold, 12 months or so later, the price is back to $1.20 (plus dividends). Roughly 12 months later, REA makes an offer of over $1.95.

This was a very easy low risk play, like now, I did not fear a wipe out of capital. Even the run off of the existing loan book with no more commissions was worth $1.50, yet there it was, coping flack from every investor, just like MFG. Abusing management, just like MFG. Crowing by the non holders, just like MFG.

Meanwhile, the adults in the room made a nice bit of coin, focussing on the main game. The share price made no sense and was there for the taking. Maybe like MFG.

MFG share price is unlikely to be 3x in a couple of years, but in my opinion, the existing asset base (even if it loses 25% of FUM and cuts fees) will generate a good earn to someone. I will be there to the end. Will fresh blood revitalise the group? Who the hell knows, but the bar is now set very very low.

Dividends will be slashed, as they should. The Barrenjoy and GYG businesses may stay or may go, but they are in the box for free.

I want this thing to hit $12, I do not look at what I paid last month, I cannot change that. I look at what I am getting for my money today and at current prices I am buying some deep rooted problems, supporting by a business just throwing off cash every month, and an investment team eager to demonstrate their skills. I like it, I am buying it.

The current price makes no sense, I don't need it to. Sometimes it that simple for those prepared to step forward.

For the people in the cheap seats here, with no skin in the game, it speaks volumes that you cannot add your wisdom on a company you own, but throw it around in spades, at one you don't. Good luck to you all, your actions suggest you need it more than I do.

GLTASH