I just re-read the latest announcements on the recent contract wins. 1) Energy Queensland deal was $45M (5 year). Jul-22 2) Exelon was $24.6M USD (~$33M AUD 7 year deal) - March-2022
Whereas Telefonica was only $21M (5 year) - Mar-2021, but lead to an earnings upgrade and market excitement as you have mentioned. Though worth pointing out, the Energy Queensland deal was an upgrade/extension to an exisitng deal, so in terms of incremental revenue might have been as little as 30-50% total to the revenue line, hard to say. But together they should add ~$10M to FY23 revenue vs. FY22.
Though I think the decline in last 12 months is still something of a BGH hangover, which maybe has left a bit of a stink on HSN. Thesedays, I don't extrapolate any valuation from takeover proposals, as they come and go - sometimes lead to a bidding war (Mainstream), and sometimes they just evaporate with no other suitors for years (SMP - Verizon, or the attempts at Australian Unity AOF). Making BGH and $6.50/share seem irrelevant IMO. The only part of that ordeal that I would have liked to change is a break fee payable in the event that an offer didn't proceed. The PE guys spend 3 months in the data room, was a distraction for the mgmt team, and no doubt HSN had to hire legal/corporate advisors throughout... should have been a few $mill + payable to HSN for those shenanigans'.
Yes, definitely not a 'hot money' stock. Not part of the BNPL bubble, or A2M hype... just a steady earner, more like a consumer defensive play.
HSN Price at posting:
$4.80 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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