Webbj,
thx for the post.. still would be interested to know the odds for a second downgrade within 6/12 month period. If I find it, I will post it here. pls, do the same...retail shareholders shall have as much info as possible to even the odds against the instos
As for your comment, indeed I hope I dont have a strong "anchor biasing". Clearly, such a massive downgrade only 3 weeks after the last one with such weak reasoning put a very big question mark about our management and the company prospect overall. The question is
1) is MRG a dog? 40% probability (my subjective assessment) or
2) The company has a sound business model and assets, but the top management shall be replaced to unlock the value? 50% probability or
3) there have been several unfortunate events with very low probability to happen and over a long run the performance of the company will "regress to the mean". 10% probability...
at this moment, I am more inclined towards the second option, but still will be pursuing the answers from the management before making a conclusion.... and indeed, I am in the red, as my average price is around 63 cents (i had been buying every day last week
)... if I conclude that option 3 is the most likely, than you would probably see my name as one of the top 20 shareholders in the next weeks
)) : i.e if these have been unforeseen tail risks, this company would be a very compelling value for 3-5 years holding period with performance "regressing to the mean" during the next 5 years...
...still collecting the questions to the management, so if you have one, please share.....
p.s my another question is to ask how they see a probability of a cap raising before June 30. if very low, how they are planning to decrease the leverage, as it is now too high.
