That may happen but for a different reason. The project should...

That may happen but for a different reason. The project should trade at a discount to npv until its in steady state production. Until that happens you need to do some of the projections yourself. What funding rate will they get on loans? What amount of the contingency will be used in the build out. How long and how costly will the ramp up be? This will give you the discount to NPV that you should be using. As they accomplish milestones to get closer to steady state we get re rates along the way. The missing piece is that the NPV is likely not going to be 1b by the time we get to that state. Take a look at what price they were using for their npv calculation and consider the oxide is trading above 150. Thats after its been falling the last few weeks. Now consider where the price will be once the other auto makers are producing larger quantities of EV vehicles in late 2024 onwards. Also note it looks like the npv is very sensitive to that price so there is downside risk too. Of those risks the one that I think is largest is that the new techniques to extract from monazite get up and running quickly and bring in unexpected supply. Going forward need to track the rate of new supply vs increased demand from wind/ev industry.