The likely outcome in my view is:1. Healthscope goes into...

The likely outcome in my view is:

1. Healthscope goes into administration, bondholders take control.
2. New owners will exit sites that aren't viable through the administration / deed of company arrangement process.
3. Sites that are viable, new owner will negotiate hard on rents, incentives, making the leases double net etc etc. There is no way the terms will be any better than they are currently but possibly and likely much worse.
4. At some point between 1 & 3, HCW will breach debt covenants and will get pushed to raise capital.
5. Sites that are not viable where the leases have been terminated, will be sold at very big discounts to current book.
5. HCW will survive but it will be heavily diluted from here.

I am not interested in participating because this is a very specialised property/operating sector and trying to model where you will be in 3 years time once all of this has washed through is difficult. Also HMC are just fee suckers and the odds are always against you.