Look, no one knows how far the stock could fall, but it is not the rent drop that will decide the ultimate bottom but it is how long this uncertainty drags & ultimately how many hospital gets new tenant that decides how far it keep falling. rent drop has some impact but hard to speculate whether rent drop will be 5% or 25% or none... !
Administrator asked for 12 month extension in front of court and to my opinion that they wouldn't dare asking for 12 month if the deal was ready to be done in 1 week time ! They also stated in the court based on article that receiver may need to negotiate the rent which matches with everyone except Tarvold and Noomxx claims as well.
so far HCW has not provided monthly update on their balance sheet which makes it very difficult for investor to invest.
In few month time this stock may re-rated back again if everything goes well but since there is no certainty on what happens the investor remains distance to the stock ! Calculated risk is what investor takes and may be around august if company disclose condition of their books then we may get any re-rate (up or down) subject to no new news comes out to market before !!!
if many hospital goes unsold then i can't guess where will be the bottom because once unsold it will go through process of vacating and receiver takes over all the asset and sold that on market to recover whatever fund they get out of it (asset means things that belongs to healthscope not the land) and then give empty possession back to HCW and then HCW start looking new tenant on their own or do something else for the asset ... this in my opinion will take lot of time ....!!!
no creditor so far went into court so far to my understanding but if that happens then there will be another delay because remember multiple people bought the debt and they all want return on their investment so while they may have paid 40c for $1 they will be demanding at-least 60c - 80c for a $1 for quick profit only if everything sold quickly.
All in all dividend suspension is good thing (for the survival) and company should keep it suspended until all matter sorted out !!!
in summary - lot of uncertainty and lot of If and Buts in this stock and no one knows where it could end up or down !
HCW Price at posting:
73.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)