The company is pretty much in the hands of the major shareholders and their debt financier. The eventual outcome of the administration will be determined by whether their investors will allow them to tip more money into this project.
The demise of the current situation is probably attributed to 70% management and 30% bad luck (the ramp of the mine coincided with slumping prices and covid). The Sedgman dispute should have never happened if the so called contract was drafted air tight.
Given the fact it is in administration there's only a few possible outcomes, I don't really follow FTI consulting's record in VA situations but i remember with MZI Resources, everyone ended up taking a bath, the major funder pretty much wiped $100 million plus.
Best Case Scenario - (1) Orion Finance conducts massive debt to equity swap with massive dilution however company still stays afloat with a new round of capital raising, this is contingent on the existing consortium willing to pour more money in as it's unlikely they will agree to a recapitalization at a massive dilution for some newcomer to pick up the carcass for a song.
Worst Case Scenario - (2) An interested buyer emerges and pretty much takes the entire operations for % of debt value and wipes every shareholder out, the existing big guys raise the white flag and take a bath with the small guys because their own investors give them pressure to just fold the cards.
Most Likely Scenario - (3) The secure lender takes possession of the entire operation, restructures company into a new entity and has a side deal with all the other major shareholders to reinvest capital in the new structure and eventually recoup their investment and more when the mine eventually comes online. The small guys as usual gets wiped out. FTI hails the transaction as a success story.
