Looking a bit more in-depth considering BNLs 13.4bcf helium prospective resources are close to RLT's recently proven reserves of 13.6bcf of helium.
BNL 13.4bcf prospective resources with no proven reserves or contingent resources as I understand it
RLT's reserves and resources prior to the recent reserves update. Noting it's taken over 2 years to get a reserves update. RLT have taken since about 2012 to get to where they are now BNL might be quicker to progress given helium extraction historically close to the BNL lease?
The mid-point RLT helium numbers totaled based on 2019 reserves data:
3bcf + 4bcf + 106 bcf = 123bcf
Recent 2021 Reserves Update for RLT
2P = 13.6bcf or about 11% of the 123bcf potential confirmed as reserves after a successfully drilling campaign where 5 of the 6 drills or 83% hit helium targets.
So given BNL has a prospective helium resource of 13.4bcf how long will it be before a reserves update and how much can be proven? Going by RLT it could take a long time before a reserves update and maybe only a small of it portion proven initially?
BNL lease being about 265k acres
RLT - Virgina Project 198k ha noting the reserves area only covered 14% of the land area and RLT noted there could potentially be more helium and methane in the remaiming 86% of the land area than the reserve area.
BNL reference potential for 8% helium concentrations and I think average 8% helium concentrations were used to calculate the 13.4bcf helium prospective resource. 8% is absolutely incredible globally if you consider globally the US at 0.35% have the highest average helium concentrations. RLT - Renergen has mentioned some wells of over 10% I believe but in the end RLT's average helium concentrations are about 3% I believe which is amazing if you consider a major producer like Qatar is at less than 0.05%.
The advantage of high helium concentrations being much lower processing costs and also means both Renergen and Blue Star Helium would potentially be preferred suppliers towards and post 2030 when considering climate targets.
Finally the recent reserves update from Sproule means the following in terms of NPV for Renergen - RLT noting the proven helium reserves of 13.6bcf are similar to BNLs prospective resources of 13.4bcf noting RLT to also produce LNG from the methane reserves so at a guess maybe 75% of the NPV is for helium if you assume x100 helium value v methane and 3% helium concentrations
RLT about 125m shares and about $3/share today
$7/share worst case NPV = 200m x $7 = $1.4b
$40/share best case NPV = 150m x $40 = $6b
So BNL with 13.4bcf helium resources if 100% could be proven might be able to reach 75% of those NPV numbers.
To me the question mark is how long will it take for BNL to drill and get reserves proven and given their land size what percentage can be proven initially and overall? 10%? 50%? Something higher? Also note BNL today is at about 6c with about 1.5b shares on issue for reference.
RLT with an NPV potential pathway based on proven reserves based on 14% of their land so further potential upside.
BNL has already gone up x15 from 0.4c to 6c. To go up from 6c to 90c will need to see the marketcap increase from about 90m to 1.35b. Who knows maybe it's possible but limiting dilution would be a factor and how long would it take? RLT as a guide since 2019 2 years for a reserves update and hope to have their big plant operational in 2024 so should be much higher in share price in 2024 in my opinion given the NPV data.
In summary RLT could have as much potential share price upside as BNL and have much less risk given the proven reserves taking up only 14% of its Virgina Projects land holding in my opinion. Other factors RLT need to raise 800m in capex but have customer agreements to underpin this. BNL operations in the US whilst RLT in South Africa and have developed a tradeable helium token using blockchain to help raise funds by pre-selling helium which is successful could limit RLT debt and dilution.
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