I can see the logic in most of what you say - however for the period you talk about for the other company the copper price was fairly subdued - many were saying that it should rise but it wasn't, a couple of upturns but then it would slide again - so there was hope for copper but no great incentive to be in the copper space.
We are now seeing the copper price surging dramatically from around USD 2.50 -$3.50 a pound for much of that ten year period to trading in the range of USD 4.50 - $5.00 in the last month. And yes it went into that territory briefly in 2021 but then dropped back - but in 2021 all of the long term forecasts were still in the USD 3.00 to USD 3.50 range. Now, many of the big analysts and big miners have moved their long term forecasts higher than USD 4.00. Here is a graph of the price for the last ten years.
So if copper stays in the + USD 4.00 /lb sort of territory we have a fundamentally different market than that which your other reference company struggled through. Copper is king at the moment and underpins all of the global targets for electrification - so it will stay there. If we aren't already we will very soon find ourselves in the position where every significant mining company is wanting to add copper or add more copper to their portfolio and they will start buying up anything with potential. BHP / Anglo is the obvious precedent.
Enter Culpeo stage left.
Copper is the new uranium, lithium or rare earth - but it is not a flash in the pan like these - it has real fundamental drivers and is going to be very scarce in 10 years time - electrification needs copper and lots of it and electrification is here to stay.
So - I am a believer that there is a floor in the share price of any company focussed on copper, and that this floor will be forced higher over time as the drive to add copper to companies ledgers increases. So I don't see the downside that you are forecasting - I believe there is only upside.
