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01/02/18
16:25
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Originally posted by ghosta
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Why would I be upset when I dont have ANY order out there to be filled?
Im still mulling over what is going on with ARV. So many things dont seem to make sense.
1) Radi Hill plant. Purchased as a favour to the bosses mate to get his company out of recievership.But that MAY be OK because it may be usefull if they can find something to process in it.
Theres 500 k tonne of ore lying around the plant. A years worth of production if and when they get the plant running to capacity. Low grade though, not previously profitable at higher metal prices. But DL tweets he cant wait to get into it.
Then theres exploration going on around Radio hill and elsewhere to try to find something profitable to run through it.
Thats the reverse of what is usual. Usually a company proves up a recource in the ground and works out what plant they need and build it.
But it might work out, assuming they discover something that Fox Recources missed. It will need to be good because metal prices were better when Fox was running the mill.
2) Cobalt "province". Early days yet, a small 0.2% jorc defined. Thats 2kg per tonne, currently worth $160 per tonne of ore. Plus gold and copper.
No tesing to see how much is actually recoverable. 10%, 50%, 80%???. Noone has any idea or if they do they are keeping quiet. Pretty fundamental question. Many companies would do this work before releasing a JORC. That improves confidence in the grades immensely.
Normally cobalt is a byproduct of nickel or copper mining. The ore has been crushed and processed to recover the main mineral and the slurry or whatever it is reprocessed to get some bonus cobalt. But Carlow isnt high grade copper, so cobalt is no longer " bonus". Its now a "Cobalt Mine". So the cobalt is paying much more of the mining costs. Lots more. The grades need to be pretty good.
We dont know the recoverable grades.
But it might work out. Its years away anyway.
But why chase Cobalt? What about Mt Oscar Witts? Millions of tonnes of conglomerate at surface? And ARV have " discovered" its under Mt Roe bassalt, even though that is debatable insofar as for that to be possible the Mt Roe bassalt overlies another layer of Mt Roe bassalt in places with sediments between layers. But lets assume its all a mixup and ARV are right.
Millions of tonnes at surface, open cut mining vs chasing cobalt underground. Very cheap to mine and much cheaper to process compared to cobalt.
If its the real deal then it might contain enough ore in terms of raw tonnage to make any cobalt province look small.
Lets throw a few figures around. Lets assume cobalt is 80% recoverable and the 0.2% figure holds for the "cobalt province". So thats $128 worth of cobalt plus gold @ 1g/tonne worth $43, ignore copper because it might cover a bit of the extra cost of mining and processing cobalt vs processing gold. Total $171.
So thats equivalent to recovering 4g/tonne gold from conglomerate. (4x $43 =$172). 4g/tonne seems pretty low compared to what most are expecting from conglomerate.
So why isnt ARV chasing its " gold province" at Mt Oscar Witts with the same vigour its chasing cobalt? If Novo can trench 3 months after its lease applications were approved, then ARV could have already done this and run the bulk samples through the small plant they relocated to Radio Hill to test bulk samples.
I can only guess the answer.
Sorry if Ive lost the rampers with my maths, sums can be hard for some people.
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Mate, every commodity targeted at Radio Hill is now higher in AUD compared to when the plant was acquired. And all but nickel from when Fox last looked at it. So you’re clearly happy stating rubbish as fact on these threads. You’re agenda is clear mate.
Others on here present really great view points on the company’s prospects and some make great arguments for why investors should take a closer look, but you’re a hack. Simple.