Hi DDBB,
Whose getting excited?
I call things as I see them and my posts are always based on exhaustive research (as I have already carried out with Gascoyne).
Ectasy about PNG? I was very optimistic about Tolukuma, nothing more, nothing less. I also knew that Tolukuma was definitely not a certainty, for a whole number of reasons (whereas Gascoyne in WA is exactly the opposite!). This is why it is so important to buy into small caps at a very low SP i.e. it limits your risk and increases your chances of significant rewards (my investment motto).
Just for your info, I look at companies solely on their MC and accordingly the potential NPV of their projects (intrinsic value). After this, it is all about ascertaing whether the market is pricing the SP at the correct level i.e. if the SP is way too low, accordingly the MC, I am then a buyer, if on the other hand the SP is way too high, accordingly the MC, I will never buy the stock no matter how good their projects appear to be. This is particularly important with junior explorers who have no earnings. For other companies i.e. those who have earnings and perhaps who are also paying dividends, quite obviously, other rules apply, and the valuation calculations are far more complex.
With regard to FNT specifically, at less than 1 cent in 2020 (MC of only ca. A$5 million), FNT were clearly very undervalued. In a nutshell, I considered Tolukuma to contain at least 500,000 ounces of Gold (worth A$25 million in the ground). Thus, I calculated that FNT should have a MC of A$25 million (which was about 4 cents a share in early 2020). Thus, at less than 1 cent, FNT were a huge buy. Enough said.
It is common sense that FNT have a long way to go at Gascoyne. Having said this, FNT spent decades in PNG with very little to show for it (A$2 million?). However, at Gascoyne, and within only a few short months, FNT suddenly now have a potentially major REE discovery on their hands. Enough said.
No ectasy here, but some understandable excitement (as well as taking some additional time to pay closer attention, in order to reap the rewards from what looks like being a highly successful investment).
I am heavily invested in FNT to make money (I am a top 20 holder). I am never in love with a stock, nor will I try to ramp it for my own purposes on a pretty useless stock forum (my posts have never influenced the SP anyway!).
At the end of the day, I am really the only one here on this forum who has regularly given a very realistic MC/SP prediction i.e. 6 cents a share (A$50 million MC), and not a valuation of 50 cents or more (over A$400 million MC!), as many others here have often touted i.e. it is these posters that have been misleading readers of this forum, not me!
Of course there are also posters on this forum who have turned investors away from FNT. I would suggest that today at least, they should refrain from giving anymore investment advice. Indeed, I know for a fact of two large investors who were turned off investing in FNT due to the extremely negative comments on this forum. Whilst they have not lost money, they have missed out on a combined A$500,000 profit (if they had invested in FNT at the time). It goes without saying that they are not happy campers today!
I am no expert, indeed there are no real experts i.e. no-one, not even Warren Buffet gets it 100% right and 100% of the time. My suggestion therefore is that all posters consider their editorial responsibility, as I always do (hence my "Disclaimer" which appears at the bottom of each and every one of my posts).
Moving along, my short term target for FNT remains at 6 cents a share (A$50 million MC), but only when the drilling results have confirmed today's very impressive "rock sample" assay results. After this, and depending on what FNT has planned for the second half of this year with regard to subsequent drilling at Gasycone (and Murraydium?) as well as a CR to finance all of this (CAPEX), I would suggest that the FNT could well trade up to 12 cents (A$100 million MC). However, this is my "best-case" valuation.
Further to my valuation of FNT, and as of right now i.e. now that Gascoyne has almost instantaneously totally replaced Tolukuma as FNT's 100% focus, and considering today's announcement, I consider Gascoyne, which is currently FNT's only real asset, to currently be worth at least A$25 million "in the ground". On top of this, FNT currently have A$5 million in cash. Therefore, IMHO, FNT's MC should be at least A$30 million, which is 3.6 cents a share (FNT currently have ca. 825 million shares on issue). Therefore, it is absolutely no surprise to me that today the FNT SP hit a high of 3.6 cents. I would call this FNT's fair value.
Having said this, quite obviously i.e. if FNT upcoming drilling results confirm today's very impressive "rock sample" assay results, I then see the SP hitting at least 6 cents a share (A$50 million MC) before the end of June.
I will now leave the talking to FNT as they progress Gascoyne further and asap, and as a top priority (and also Murraydium?).
As always, this post and indeed all my posts are my opinion only, and should never ever be considered as investment advice.
Cheers!
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