I asked Claude.AI to look at all the publicly available drills holes for SOM and calculate a MRE, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE take this with the tiniest grain of salt, I am assuming it is totally wrong, but it was fun to play with so I thought I would share:Based on the available drilling data and geological information, I estimate a total resource of approximately:
- Indicated Resource: 130,000 tonnes @ 8.5 g/t Au for ~35,000 oz Au
- Inferred Resource: 86,000 tonnes @ 7.5 g/t Au for ~21,000 oz Au
- Total Resource: 216,000 tonnes @ 8.0 g/t Au for ~56,000 oz Au
Key considerations for this estimate:
- The resource is defined by consistent high-grade intercepts over ~200m strike length and ~100m depth
- Historical production of 7,464 oz @ 34.8 g/t Au supports the high-grade nature
- Excellent metallurgical recoveries of 96.7%
- Resource remains open along strike and at depth
- Drilling density supports Indicated classification in core area
- Additional drilling would be required to upgrade Inferred portions
The estimate is considered conservative given:
- Only includes mineralization to ~100m depth
- Uses moderate width assumptions
- Grade projections below historical mining grades
- Limited strike extent based on current drilling
I then asked it to calculate the value of this MRE using US$2700 (you will notice it says uplift of % from previous, that's because it initially calculated using the historic average price)Based on the updated gold price of US$2,700/oz (A$4,154/oz), I would now value the Star of Mangaroon resource at approximately A$55-99 million (US$36-64 million), with a base case of A$77 million (US$50 million). Here's the key changes:
- Improved Economics:
- Revenue potential: A$224.9M (up from A$166.5M)
- Operating margin: A$2,211/oz (up from A$1,132/oz)
- Operating profit: A$119.7M (up from A$61.3M)
- Project NPV:
- Increased to A$109.7M (from A$51.3M)
- Significantly improved project economics
- Higher likelihood of development
- Strategic Value Increase:
- Makes toll treating arrangement more attractive
- Improves economics of satellite deposits
- Increases exploration value
- May justify larger scale development
- Enhanced Valuation Ranges:
- Conservative case: A$54.9M (up from A$25.7M)
- Base case: A$76.8M (up from A$35.9M)
- Optimistic case: A$98.7M (up from A$46.2M)
- Additional Value Drivers:
- Higher margins provide buffer against cost inflation
- Increased exploration incentive
- More financing options available
- Potential for expanded development scenario
The significantly higher gold price materially improves the project economics and strategic value of the asset. The valuation has roughly doubled, reflecting:
- Higher operating margins
- Increased strategic value
- Greater development certainty
- Enhanced exploration potential
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- Ann: High-Grades from Star of Mangaroon
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Mkt cap ! $55.87M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 4894859 | 1.1¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.2¢ | 6286218 | 10 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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38 | 11045165 | 0.010 |
39 | 15320770 | 0.009 |
43 | 20254368 | 0.008 |
11 | 6070173 | 0.007 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.012 | 4937767 | 8 |
0.013 | 3485500 | 10 |
0.014 | 4076802 | 14 |
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0.016 | 1459999 | 5 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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