Good evening all and howdy
@invest99 thanks for tagging my somewhat old post. Thanks to
@Superpaddy for the summon... a welcome change to being summoned by my wife.
I haven't posted for a while but have not taken an eye off STX. In many ways so much has happened in the last 6 months yet at the same time it feels like nothing has changed, if you know what I mean.
Since Sep 24 we've had some major developments... the MIN deal with Hancock, $1b++ for a prime piece of the PB gas kitchen. We've had the domestic gas policy update with the lucrative export option on the table, an absolute game changer. Then we've had the surprise Stu sudden exit and subsequent strategic review. This news was significant and caught me off guard for sure.
For me, it was clear that Stu had a strategy and was implementing it as he saw fit. I felt he had the support of the board and a clear mandate to effect rapid change. But something happened and happened quickly. I too am perplexed that there was no mention of a search to be immediately undertaken for a suitable replacement. Sure, Jill is a great interim CEO to hold the fort, she has impressive O&G expertise and her network would be incredible. But surely an announcement along the lines of a global search with X headhunter has commenced. I've been involved with these searches in my past life and they can take a good 6-12 months to find and appoint whilst also waiting for any notice period to be served. So yeah, a bit odd IMO. It's as if a CEO won't be needed for the foreseeable future...
And immediately talking about a strategic review. Well, I've been around long enough to know that means all things are on the table here, most likely an asset sale or IMO, a likely fielding of suitors for the company as a whole. I think this is the BoD now saying, like a classic Melbourne auction, we are on the market, come make your best offers. IMO this change of tact will flush out some obvious interested parties. How long that takes? Probably a matter of weeks IMO.
My network from my O&G days is a bit old... but I would have thought there might be whispers of a data room being set-up. This is something that said company undertaking such strategic reviews put together with all the information on their assets... and invite parties to come inspect the goods. I have been involved with these in the past... been to Adelaide... Brisbane... Perth... Darwin... assessing lots of interesting assets. Not sure if anyone on these threads has heard any whispers (granted NDAs are a given, but you know... people talk).
I think Hancock is playing hard ball here. Stalling WE FID until they assess their recent MIN purchase... drill a few holes... suss out the ideal gas plant size... take as long as they want or need... make STX squirm... maybe Gina is in chats with other likely overseas parties (Koreans, Japanese?). It would make sense a foreign entity to come into a JV with Hancock... she has a long history of it... from IO to her more recent Senex acquisition. Especially given the weak AUD. We are cheap cheap cheap here in OZ.
As I have said before, BPT and Mitsui would be crazy to not have a crack. They should really start first... Can be a succulent scrip / cash offer. BPT SP has had a good run, nearly 6x the MC of STX now. Not long ago it was ~3x. A scrip deal from them with Mitsui cash kicker could be a real go-er. It would make me think carefully... coz BPT is about to start printing cash from mid year once Waitsia starts pumping.
And forget this whole export 5 yr window deadline shenanigans. That's just a teaser, to make sure joe public don't get pissed. It will be extended for sure... the power of Gina, Stokes etc. is too great. And Woodside with the Karratha GP extension... that can't sit idle. Plus all the Japanese, Korean etc customers... they want our gas... they need our gas. No... LNG will be pumping for years to come.
Now would be a great time to move on STX. Why? B/c there is so much upside... there is so much cream to come from WE/ED reserves upgrade... to the SE peaker plant to LNG export for years to come. IMO, right now, any bid should start from 40c... 50c would be fantastic... 60c will be a cherry on top. Anything is possible IF the bid is competitive. The reality is STX is the last significant piece of the PB puzzle. What price would you put on trying to replace such assets?
Anyway, TBH I am bloody over this share price games. In about a week's time it will be a year since the torture started. No matter what positive progress or good news there is, the SP gets choked, smothered, strangled. I too want closure and IMO I think we are approaching the end game. Sad as it may be, and I still have a significant holding here, I am ready to move on. I normally don't get emotionally invested in stocks but being a born & bred West Australian and actually a big fan of Perth (miss my summers at Scarborough beach) I will be genuinely sad when this journey comes to an end.
Sorry I can't write much more although this is probably long enough for some... travelling at the moment... supposed to be relaxing.... and I've been summoned... again.
Good fortune to all of us.
Brobel
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(20min delay)