HIO 3.70% 2.6¢ hawsons iron ltd

Ann: HIO Strategic Review announcement, page-101

  1. 4,979 Posts.
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    Hi Blue, I don't know enough about HCH to offer a fair opinion sorry. It's on my copper watchlist but only really by virtue of the fact there's so few options. Chile sounds like a challenged jurisdiction right now.

    Unfortunately probably not the answer you want to hear @Freestar, but I think there's little they can do in the current situation. Holders might want to blame management but in my opinion the project was incredibly challenged from the start. I know the consensus in these threads is that the resource is amazing, world class, etc, and on a technical % Fe perspective that might be true, but it's too difficult for a junior to develop. In my view they should just try and sell the project to an interested major to try and elicit some shareholder value (however they'll come up with a whole lot of reasons why they shouldn't do that, because it would be the end of their salaries). But no matter how good the % Fe might be, the project currently depends on a 392km pipeline (!) and a brand-new port facility (!), which frankly is the sort of infrastructure no junior will ever be able to pull off, especially in the current fiscal environment. The capex from the 2017 PFS was USD$1.4B (!), and that was before the current storm of high inflation / tight labour market. Due to 'survivorship bias', too many resource punters fall into the trap of thinking "FMG did it, my stock will be the next one", but they forget all the companies who have tried, failed, and fallen by the wayside. I find it particularly interesting that both MGT and HIO fired up again in 2021-22, as you only need to look at the history of both (as ROY and CAP) to see this exact pump-and-hibernate scenario play out. I guess at the end of the day the best thing one can do in stocks like these is trade the sentiment, but don't be the one left holding the bag. Apologies for my bluntness but that's my honest take. When to all intents and purposes the project is shelved / put on ice, I feel very cynical about management teams like this one (and MGT) stringing along the punters and continuing to raise capital at the lows, just to effectively keep themselves in a job. I've had some stinkers in my time too, the important thing is to objectively evaluate where I went wrong, and why, and put those lessons to good profit in future endeavours. Cheers
    Last edited by mondyinvest: 02/02/23
 
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