Ann: HIO Strategic Review announcement, page-16

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Johnyb888

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01/02/23

12:37

Post #: 66003642
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Originally posted by Johnyb888: ↑

Yes. They should just go to minimum spending. Maybe take on a different role (Like Brian already did) on the side while waiting. And take a big pay cut.

How long the wait will be? Who knows. We could be in a much better position as early as later this year, or it could take a few years. That will depend on inflation, interest rates and the global economy as well as on the IO price for the high grade stuff. But every single other high grade IO project will have to deal with CAPEX blowouts so just let the supply demand do its job...Non or very few new project will come online while the demand increases...At some point the price will go high enough to justify building mines. That is the simple cyclicality of mining and commodities.

So unless there are loads of other high grade IO projects (magnetite or concentrate) that can be economical at current CAPEX costs (and I don't know of any) HIO has little to worry about.

Unless previous number where off by a wide margin and essentially no longer valid, HIO is still one of the most economically attractive high grade IO concentrate projects in the world.

This whole review is just a waste! Stick to the 20Mtpa (certainly if you plan to build a pretty long pipeline) and wait for conditions to go back to late 2021 and early 2022...No matter if that is due to much lower cost or much higher IO prices. Maybe do some optimizing that can be done on the cheap since it will benefit us when that time comes.

But the current plan is just going to dilute the hell out of us. And the share price will suffer I fear.

Expand

Think about it.

We went to $1+ because the economics of the project were great!

Then the Covid supply line issues hit (hard!) essentially doubling CAPEX cost. And doubled the projects timeline. Is this now the norm for the next decade? Off course NOT!

The war in Ukraine blew out energy prices which in combination with very lose monetary policy and constrained supply line issues rapidly ramped up inflation and subsequently interest rates which in turn meant the double CAPEX cost would require much larger interest payments that due to longer timeline would also have to be paid for twice as long! Are very high interest rates the new norm? I am not 100% sure, but inflation has been dropping rapidly so I think probably not.

So to sum up if CAPEX drops for 200% back to say 120% and the build time goes back to the projected 2 years instead of 4 years we may well be back to a very attractive project. Add in possible lower interest rates and quite possibly higher IO prices (not many projects going ahead right now!) and we are essentially back to the situation that pushed us to over $1...

Action required by HIO? NON!

HIO Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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