MNB (ASX) Ann: Historic Green Energy MOU signed for Capanda Green Ammonia

This is the best that the chart has looked in months. An MOU for the green ammonia helps renew investor confidence and I think that is all this stock needs. Not many like buying a stock in down trend but the falling sp ended a while ago with the 7-8c consolidation of the last 6 weeks.
Renewed confidence, a sp no longer falling, a better looking chart is what it can take to turn the tide. Sellers back off and buyers start to step up. A new uptrend begins and the positive feedback loop feeds on itself. The down trend now appears broken and that's a great start.
Plenty of upside from this point.

Originally posted by chuk: ↑

"Our modelling to date suggests the concessional pricing from the Capanda hydroelectric station will likely see our project competitive against any fossil fuel-driven ammonia project globally, even in a more normalised global energy environment which is enhanced by its proximity to local markets."

The US has had to offer very large assistance to encourage green hydrogen production. MNB can be competitive with no assistance.

"Secondly, it is becoming apparent that many interested global players in the Hydrogen-Ammonia space are settling on a green project heuristic that producing Green Hydrogen and Ammonia where they are consumed provides the most commercially viable opportunity."

I'm looking forward to that scoping study. I think its base case NPV will be significantly higher than the A$300mill base case NPV of the phosphate project and the company has called the phosphate project its smaller project. The current $58million market cap is still a very steep discount for the phosphate project with its A$300 million NPV at much lower, "base case" fertliser prices, especially considering that it's due to begin production next year (we will be saying "later this year" in a few more weeks).
That means the green ammonia project still is given effectively zero value by the market which really is incredible for such a promising project in a very strong growth sector and a situation highly unlikely to last for too much longer. Once the sp begins to trend higher again and confidence returns, then the sp should be able to recover a lot of ground very quickly. Maybe the green ammonia scoping study will do the trick or maybe confirmation of the US $25 million debt facility being finalised for the phosphate project. After that, the company only needs a further US$15 million - which includes working capital requirements. US$15 million could come from another lender or hopefully a customer offtake pre-payment, or a combination of both. Debt often requires a company to show it can raise part of the capex as equity but MNB has already done that with the last cr with $25mill raised, including significant amounts from new cornerstone investors. Maybe there will be one last equity component, maybe not. Either way the upside from here is obviously very large. two projects with a likely combined base case NPV of at least $700million and the current market cap is still below $60 million. If that isn't a potential for ten times return on your investment, I don't know what is.

The continuing support from the Angolan government has been confirmed with today's announcement.

"Our MOU with RNT-EP is a function of our previous work in country to build an industry from the bottom-up,creating new opportunities for growth within a country that has enormous agricultural opportunity. We thank the Angolan Government for again entrusting us with what will be a world-first green project that highlights the abundant opportunities that Angola presents.”

Expand

"two projects with a likely combined base case NPV of at least $700million and the current market cap is still below $60 million"

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0.072	108759	2
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0.075	262000	2
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(20min delay)
Last 7.2¢		Change 0.001(1.41%)		Mkt cap ! $63.26M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
7.1¢	7.2¢	6.8¢	$35.24K	505.1K

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