Our Future Fund seems to be expecting inflation at some higher level for quite some time. I'm assuming it will continue lower with higher interest rates but then it might be allowed to settle at a higher level than we were used to prior to covid - in an attempt to allow economies to avoid or recover from recession.
Inflation has hurt Minbos through higher capex but it will strongly benefit Mnb through likely higher than base case fertiliser prices for the longer term. Mnb wouldbenefit by having its own raw input of phosphate and by the very low electricitycost now locked in with the MOU for the green ammonia. We should be assuming something between the spot price (closer to A$600million NPV) and base case NPV valuations for the phosphate project. Ie the A$300mill base case NPV is probably going to be far too low. A$450 could be more realistic and we can look forward to something bigger for the green ammonia.
https://www.copyright link/markets/equity-markets/no-easy-way-out-future-fund-urges-investing-reset-20221216-p5c6zu
"Australia’s Future Fund says it has repositioned its $200 billion portfolio for a world of higher inflation and increased volatility, lifting its exposure to select commodities including gold, and lowering its proportion to equities, as well as being wary of regulatory risk in areas such as utilities.The Future Fund is also investing in real estate and infrastructure but only if the assets are sufficiently resilient to higher inflation, as it revealed that it now owns.."
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