MNB 1.82% 5.6¢ minbos resources limited

Ann: Historic Green Energy MOU signed for Capanda Green Ammonia, page-126

  1. 13,571 Posts.
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    I see every reason to expect at least 1000% growth in sp although I'm not expecting to see it in 12 months.
    The chart below is the DFS forecast annual surplus cash flows from the phosphate project (bold black text added by me). That certainly would justify a mc of at least $1.5bill as earnings grow to A$80million, $147mill and later much higher still. Once annual cash surplus hits A$147mill, there is another ten years where annual surplus averages over A$150mill with a peak of A$221mill.
    While the chart shows the earnings to justify that mc might be around 5-7 years out, that time frame could easily be halved with the earnings from the green ammonia probably easily matching the earnings from the phosphate perhaps in around three years from now.
    I.e., I think we could see a better than 1000% sp gain but I would expect that to take up to 3-4 years. Of course that might mean 200-300% (30-40c) or better in 1-2 years so we don't need to be too patient to see big rewards in a much shorter time frame. I fully expect better than $1 per share soon after the green ammonia earnings ramp up in hopefully 3-4 years time.
    SP targets can only be estimated roughly even if cash flow forecasts are spot on and mc targets are met because what we allow for future dilution might not be correct. There may be significant future dilution for the green ammonia project but it might be less significant if the company can secure a large debt package with the backing of the phosphate project cash flows. That part is guess work for now. A sp many multiples of the current is much less guess work.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4937/4937715-5c286374827d28f55647577e632776ac.jpg

    Last edited by chuk: 31/12/22
 
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