After looking into booking phuket trip for early next year, after cheap flights offered by airlines, I have come to the conclusion that whilst there might be a bounce in travel to some extent, this could be dampened in current financial year and even next financial year - so long as all the strict documentary/testing/vaccination requirements etc continue to be in place. These will act as deterrents for some travellers and their families, which will make it hard for travel to return to peak levels.
Whilst a large majority of adults will be vaccinated, many countries require travellers to be fully vaccinated (or exempt from doing so) and provide proof of this in the form of a certificate. This cuts out a portion of population (unvaccinated) who cannot travel, so long as this requirement remains.
The administrative requirements and costs involved at the moment are onerous when travelling to some countries and will deter a portion of the population from travel, including backpackers who are on a tighter budget. A number of forms will need to be filled in, tests and certificates obtained and insurance at your own cost. Further, some with limited or no smartphone access or difficulties with technology etc, or with language barriers, may be deterred.
During my research, it appears that for Australians to travel to Phuket for 2 weeks from 1 Nov 2021, you would in total be required to seek a minimum of 3 PCR tests and 1 Rapid Antigen Test, all at your own cost.
You will need a PCR test certificate issued, not just the SMS result. In Australia, this is currently only done by certain private providers at a cost of around $150, and needs pre-booking (Medicare doesn't cover this). In Thailand, this might be around $100 each.
A PCR test needs to be done within 72 hours of your scheduled departure time in Australia and an official certificate received from the lab (and hope that certificate arrives on time) before you can get on that flight.
You will also need to do a PCR test and an Rapid Antigen Test in Phuket at your own cost with the first done on arrival (Estimate total $150). I think you will have pre-book and pay before you arrive in Phuket (not clear on the logistics yet), testing either done at hotel or pre-arranged testing centre. You will have to wait for the result of this on-arrival PCR test at your government certified hotel, and it must be negative, before you can be released into the community. Usually 1 day wait but could be longer if delayed. A Rapid Antigen Test (post 1/11/2021) needs to be done on day 6/7 (previously needed a PCR test). Before you return to Australia, you must do a PCR test (another $100 roughly) in Thailand within 72 hours of scheduled departure and obtain a negative result. Don't forget you also need to complete Australia's travel declaration form - must be filled in at least 72 hours before you come back to Australia.
You will have to book and pay for a stay in a thai govt certified hotel only (e.g. SHA+ certified hotel) which is not an issue as many hotels have this certification. Must be at least 1 night. May or may not need the hotel to issue you with the govt issued SHA certificate with QR code for your booking.
You will need to book approved transportation to you directly from airport to hotel or testing centre.
You also need travel insurance with a minimum coverage on medical expenses (USD 50k min).
You will need to head to the thai consulate online before departure to register your entry online (certificate of entry pre 1/11/2021 to be replaced with a registration requirement with online thai consulate / embassy from 1/11/2021). Not clear on the intricate details of this step.
You must download the thai govt covid tracking app for your stay.
Oh, if any of your covid test results are positive, you will have to be isolated. Obviously, that would really dampen your trip experience. Especially, if you're travelling with a group or family and one or more of you cannot go out, or if you all had to self-isolate for a period of time. If your PCR result is positive within 72 hours of return flight to Australia, that would be annoying as you might need to extend your trip and get another PCR test to provide its negative, before you can come back to Australia.
Looking at all these requirements (and these are just some of the ones I saw, so may have missed some) assuming they remain in place this FY and next FY, it makes travel all too hard for a portion of the population, until countries decide to relax requirements.
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(20min delay)