HLO helloworld travel limited

Ann: HLO Half Year 2024 Investor Presentation, page-13

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    Here's Morgan's analysis of CTD results. Can see the dip is due to the (temporary) EBITDA below consensus. But the revenue outlook looks very healthy. It's taking the herd a little while to digest that this is a very good result and that HLO holding 20% of CTD is excellent diversification. Business travel will boom.

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    FY24 outlook commentary

    • CTD has revised its FY24 EBITDA to A0-230m from A0-280m previously. The mid-point or A0m is materially below Factset consensus of A1.4m and MorgansF of A5m. The downgrade reflects the UK Bridging contract scaling below expectations. The EBITDA hit is m. The 2Q24 was impacted by Am of macro issues (War, US budgets being hit early and slow outbound travel from China). The 1H represents 45.8% of full year guidance and is much stronger than its usual seasonal skew (1/3 vs 2/3 1H vs 2H).
    • Trading in January was materially up on the pcp, with North America EBITDA up 60%, ANZ revenue +11% and Asia EBITDA up 196% vs the pcp.
    • CTD’s new 5-year plan is to double FY24 profits by FY29 (15% CAGR).
    • CTD noted that it is well placed to consider M&A in FY24.

 
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