Subject + the sand castles on the beach + Posted 17/01/05 18:17 - 74 reads Posted by stolwyk Post #93592 - start of thread - splitview
Thanks DUB,
What nice sand castles they have made and they will last forever? But unfortunately, the Sunnis won't play, so the Shias did most of the work. The Kurds helped because they are looking into the future.
Saddam made a very important remark: "I hope that they will keep Iraq together". I don't think they will and I discussed some of the problems previously.
We really need to look at the whole picture to include Afghanistan and Saudi.
1. AFGHANISTAN: That will only have a democracy as long the US or other troops remain. An excellent hideout for fighters and this year it has a record opium crop.
Now, who is going to take that Opium away from them? Nobody, because it is their livelyhood. Can the US pay for that crop and somehow train the farmers to raise different crops? Very difficult, I think. Opium is the best paying proposition.
2. IRAQ. The Shias want an Islamist State run along the same line as Iran's. They have been in contact with Iran many times. The Sunni and the Kurds obviously don't want that. (signs are that the Sunni will not partake in the elections). Shias and Sunni are not exactly in love with each other as has been shown over the years.
The US wasn't clever threatening Iran, as both Russians and Chinese are well established there. (A threat is not useful unless it can be carried out).
As mentioned, the Iranians are interested in a world wide domination by Islam and the place to start is Iraq and capture some of the oil fields as well. They will use the Shia in Iraq to do that.
So, no matter how much smoke and mirrors are being used, the outlook is grim. The Shia, once having formed an army will try to defeat the Sunni while the Kurds will annex the property they already hold and call it their state. Perhaps they may expand it somewhat so as to ensure they will be well supplied with oilfields.
The Sunni can move at night and make it difficult for a Government to exist. There will be plenty of sabotage and the ensuing guerilla warfare could last a very long time. No doubt, they want a piece of Iraq as well.
Iran will support the Shia throughout with weapons and training (I believe they are already training fighters), or supply units of their regular army disguised as fighters, while the US looks on. Obviously, as long as this situation exists, the US troops can't go home as they won't surrender the oil fields.
The Shia will use them till they think they can handle the situation and will ask the US to go home. (So in a way, the US has assisted the Iranians while being in a check-mate position and without wanting to do so).
3. SAUDI: Again, it isn't too healthy here either with Bin Laden instructing Al Qaeda cells to blow up refineries/pipe lines and to get rid of the Royal family. For starters, attacks are being made on employees of foreign companies assisting the Saudi. It is quite possible that some major sabotage may suddenly put some oil supplies out of action. This will affect the US.
The problem with the US staying in Iraq and to some extent helping the Saudi to maintain and guard the oil supply is that Bin Laden uses this for propaganda purposes by pointing out that the oil is being sold too cheaply to the US.
And now the sea comes in and floods the sand castles where many have worked on: democracy has disappeared.
