This period in the 4s has been a great opportunity for long term...

This period in the 4s has been a great opportunity for long term holders to add to their holding at a price perhaps lower than their average - which is what has happened for many people.

A few big retail holders have given up the wait in that time. Perhaps they found something better, perhaps they just couldn't wait. I'm always hearing of "better prospects elsewhere".

Its been a long wait for many, but the developments for Nuheara late in 2020 and now in 2021 have been massive, and a rerate may be just around the corner.

I've read posts suggesting the opportunity cost of holding Nuheara over that time has not been worthwhile. So I thought to do some calculations.


Here is a basic scenario of a long term holder:

Average buy price = 5c
Duration of hold at end of 2021 = 5 years

If the Share Price were to be 20c (MC $340m) at the end of 2021, what would your return be?

Its a fairly simple calculation: 5c * (x)^5 years = 20c
The solution: x = 1.32

This means that your investment over the 5 years has returned 32% compounded annually. I'd be happy with that

Of course if you've got a shorter hold period, that number increases significantly.

Here's a table of returns - based on 20c at the end of 2021 (the example, 5c for 5 years is highlighted in green)



If you bought your whole holding at 10c five years ago and the share price is 20c at end of 2021, your return will be 15% p.a. compounded - that's the lowest return scenario I can imagine for anyone.

Any lower average price, or shorter hold period, will increase this value as shown in the table.

To get these returns, you just have to wait for the share price to be 20c. Its been longer than I expected, but that time is already spent. Because I believe in the SP eventually reaching 20c (and higher), there is no way I'm leaving now.


I hope this is of use to some holders.

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