So I was ball park right, by 2025, we will have 100 GWh in USA, 100 in EU, 100 in others and 300 in China.
whether is NMC or LFP, I'm picking Mn will be present.
given recent development of M3P (m3 means three metals, hence Fe, Mn and Al), these LFMP batteries appears to becoming the darling on 2023 onwards lead by CATL.
Recapping,
- USA 50 GWh requires 250 ktn MnSO4/year (2025)
- EU 50 GWh requires 250 ktn MnSO4/year (2025)
- Other 50 GWh requires 250 ktn MnSO4/year (20225)
- CHiNA 150 GWh requires 750 ktn MnSO4/year (2025)
with these numbers doubling by 2030, and doubling again if LFMP becomes the standard of choice as I'm assuming 50% preference in the above.
2025 is not far away, hence the rush of small companies to become on line by that time. I just wonder if the current suppliers will be expanding, maintaining their market share (Prince, Eramet). Their raw material is cheap, however as this market develop supplier might want a bigger bite in the downstream processors margin, and that's where E25 could get an advantage as they own their own resource.
looks to me the ore business is dead for E25, hence this becomes main focus and critical. With the highest ore price in history they managed to break even on the best quarter. That's disaster from wherever you look at it, Garant. I'm sure they tried everything but the results show it is not viable.
but this battery business is gaining momentum now, and demand as per below graph can even go bigger depending on countries and regional policies. I read about even 9 TWh demand by 2030.... looks like we will all have a battery inserted in our holes.
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