This is an exceptionally strong announcement from IND- IMO his...

This is an exceptionally strong announcement from IND- IMO his should start the SP on a nove up to several dollars- in the next few months/years and for me Its time to get set asap.

Full disclosure: I am already long and hence I'm taking the time out here to write this reserach below as I want to get the word out - so this hopefully people understand this stock better and the SP rises to where it should be sooner.

So why will IND share price likley now rise to several dollars? . I know this company well and I am also involved with direct commodity traders in HK selling around Asia. There is strong demand for- and a shortage of supply in the HPQ market. - And IMO its appears to be one that cant easily be supplied - or more importantly over-supplied - so IMO HPQ prices are unlikely to collpase in the near future and probably will keep risiong higher iun the near term and they have been doing for the last few years. - This of course is my own opinion only and theres no guarantee Im right. But I do know the market and hence I have started buying shares in IND as their name is now going around the trader fratenity in Asia as a potential new supplier.. Eileen Hau their sales lady is well known and respected in the Asia market and Id guess from what I hear that IND probably already have more than 20 potential buyers talking to and some in advanced negtotiations twith them -and not all from China but also Japan Taiwan Korea etc as all the Ne Asian chip makers are desperate for a good new regular supply from a good jurisdiction like Australia.

Just for those who don't know High Purity quartz is desperately needed to make more micro-chips as the world keeps demanding more computing power - and this process wont stop. Serious HPQ suppliers are already going at full tilt and its hard to see other significant new sources of supply right now - IND looks like a good new one to the market if its HPQ hits the right qualirty - which their new results from sprce Pine and the university fo NC now confirm as announced on Friday - this is impoirtant.

At the top end of HPQ purity - there is a huge acceleration in price based on the smallest iterations higher in purity - This multiplies in multi-year off-take agreements. Therefore it is crucial that both buyer and seller agree on purity levels proven by one or two respeected independent labs. IND just got their first one back from the US last week and IMO its extermly positive.

As announced on Friday - their base case purity HPQ from their Mukinbudin resource is 99.91% SiO2 from just a single run processing.- this shouold be able to be purified higher again with the use of secondary stage purification such as calcination and Chlorination. This is VERY positive..

SO WHY SHOULD THIS STOCK GO TO A$ DOLLARS?

The pricing chart from IND's announcement posted below - gives a fair indication of current HPQ prices in north Asia now


as shown above - 99.991% purity quartz today sells for around USD 500 a ton. But with some further standard processing I would expect their quartz could get to 494-495 quality (thats 99.994 or 99.995) That should fetch around USD 700 a ton and my guess is longer term contracts could be arranged around that sort of price. I also dont think the firts announcements of such should be too far off now.

So lets crunch the potential numbers:

Our groups market reserach (including talking to IND) makes us think that IND could probably get their HPQ to asia in bulk for under USD 250 a ton CIF. - this means on 494 putity selling at our around USD 700 a ton they could potentially make around USD 450 a ton profit.

A modest offtake agreement would likely be around 100,000 tons a year- or up to say 200,000 a year. However if IND can do more we are confident the market will take fast.
So lets imagine from catching one or two offtakers IND might reasonably do 150,000 tons a year? - based on long term offtake contracts.
150k tons at cost USD 450 profit per ton = would bring in around USD 67 million gross profit pa - ( approx A$98 million)

Take off 40% of that for cost and taxes?? (at his is conservative as 1. their are tax breaks avialble to them and 2. much of their opex will be in the USD 250 a ton CIF price im calculating ) and lets say they could make a net profit of A$ 60 million per year.?

There are currently fully diluted 68 million shares on issue- plus around 10 million options - and id guess they will need to do another CR soon -.-so lets imagine IND will end up with 85 million Shares on issue?

A$60 million per year on an 8x pe would imply a market cap of around A$ 480 million.- This is quite normal and common for ASX development companies that get into successful production.

480 million market cap divided by 85 million shares = 5.50$ per share.!!

While 27 cents to around 5$ a share may sound good - I persdonally think theres more potential. -

As you can see in the pricing chart above if High purity quartsx can be benificated to Hyper purity 99.998+ then it can fetch up to USD 4000 a ton!. Benification plants to do this cost around A$ 6-8 million and can be acquired in europe with expert credit finacing. Once IND can bag their first offtake agreement and ioncome - any logic would say they should go on to buy their own benifcation plant?

If IND could hen produce say just 50,000 tons a year at OPEX of roughly USD 500 a ton CIQ
(NOTICE : These are my own figures - and all speculative - but also reasonably well informed - and I am long already so Pleaqse DYOR )

So IND can then do 50,000 tons a year and make USD 3,500 a ton that could be a gross income of around USD 175 mill a year. - and they could payback their benfication plant in a few months.-so of course they should take that route!.

USD 175 gross profit = A$ 247 mill - lets take 30% off for tax and costs and were looking at a potential A$180 million net profit pa. - On an 8x pe that would imply a potential MC of A$1.4 billion - again nothing so unusual about that for ASX companies that go from development into succesful production - thers many of them.

With 85 mill shares out an A$ I.4 billion MC hat would imply up to a potential 16$ per share!

Disclaimer- these forward looking statement i make above are from my own reserach - they are based on the facts IND have disclosed to the ASX and my knowledge of this industry - they are speculative - and theres of course no guarantee they will come to pass .
- But IMO the announcemernt on Friday now makes this look much more likely and IMO if you can get you hands of any IND stock below 50 cents now IMO you be crazy notto take that bet!

good luck to all holders and DYOR!