Ann: HUM - hummgroup financial position update, page-66

My thoughts atm:

Tangible book value 90c / share vs Price per share 46c / share. Mr Market is saying Goodwill is 0 and maintainable earnings will contract with all the cash being burnt over time.

However Duncan Saville is saying I'm a buyer here because I see value. It's still a small bet for him but it does look like he will be a substantial shareholder soon if not already. There also seems to be constant buying at these levels by other players with a large $2m fund manager trade happening at market close today. Andrew Abercrombie was also a buyer but whether to block the sale probably weighs more then a purchase of being deep value.

I'm also sure that tax loss selling is contributing to some selling lately and a depressed price. All in all I think its a wonderful bet that there will be a future deal that will be value accretive at these prices. Over the next year if this goes back to 80c that's a 60% return from an average buyin of 50c. If it takes 2 years to unlock value that's IRR of 26%. Still not bad.

I'm really looking forward to the next rounds of results to get a better feel for HUM.

HUM has become my largest holding so am biased towards a positive result. Please fact check and your own research.