Ann: hummgroup 3Q22 business update, page-65

Let's invert.

Even if:

1. You can only sell your LFS shares at $1.40 (-20% discount to current price... Would equate to a 10% DY)
2. Normalised Commercial CNPAT is "only" $25m (despite being on track to earn >$30m this year)
3. A fair PE multiple for the Commercial stand-alone is 8x

You get to a fair value of 98c vs. 72c today. So in what I would consider a very conservative scenario, there is still >35% upside that can be crystallised within the next year.

Alternatively, our bull case could look like:

1. LFS shares valued are valued at 1.70
2. Normalised Commercial CNPAT at $35m extrapolating recent rapid volume growth
3. A fair PE multiple for the Commercial stand-alone is 12x (in line with what they were rumoured to spin-off this off at a few years ago)

There is +110% upside from here !

The skew remains very attractive.