Let's invert.
Even if:
1. You can only sell your LFS shares at $1.40 (-20% discount to current price... Would equate to a 10% DY)
2. Normalised Commercial CNPAT is "only" $25m (despite being on track to earn >$30m this year)
3. A fair PE multiple for the Commercial stand-alone is 8x
You get to a fair value of 98c vs. 72c today. So in what I would consider a very conservative scenario, there is still >35% upside that can be crystallised within the next year.
Alternatively, our bull case could look like:
1. LFS shares valued are valued at 1.70
2. Normalised Commercial CNPAT at $35m extrapolating recent rapid volume growth
3. A fair PE multiple for the Commercial stand-alone is 12x (in line with what they were rumoured to spin-off this off at a few years ago)
There is +110% upside from here !
The skew remains very attractive.
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Let's invert. Even if:1. You can only sell your LFS shares at...
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46.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $226.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 57190 | 46.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
46.0¢ | 10350 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 57190 | 0.460 |
2 | 30001 | 0.450 |
1 | 44479 | 0.445 |
1 | 2000 | 0.435 |
1 | 20000 | 0.430 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.460 | 10350 | 2 |
0.465 | 45518 | 2 |
0.470 | 58222 | 5 |
0.475 | 14000 | 2 |
0.480 | 102688 | 5 |
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