Huon stated their prices where 11.40/kg
If our prices are down similar that could knock prices down $1.88 from last years avg of $13.28.
EBITDA was only $2.09 per kg on exports (which was 18% of sales), and $3.55 per kg on domestic, so it would be a significant reduction on those margins, IF thats how it plays out...
But, i dont think that straight analogy can be drawn between them and us, our Q1 update had sales revenue up 31%, and Q2 should have been big as well with reports of a lot of seafood consumption over xmas.
The update didnt clarify how much of that was salmon and prawns though, so part of the revenue growth could be from increased volume of prawns. They reported operating cashflow was $21.8m better in Q1, and expect to grow for FY21, and also operating cost improvements.
Its hard to imagine with a good Q1, that Q2 revenue could be so bad that H1 revenue ends up down 15%, if it dropped off that sharply (over xmas), without hearing from management, then it would be time to bring in the lawyers...
I expect NPAT will be down, but cashflow will be good, a solid result during an expansion phase... but wherever we end up short term, medium to long term looks good, this is the time in the cycle to buy.
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