A watched pot never boils..... Too many are watching and waiting for a recession means it will have minimal impact when it does arrive. It's when it is unexpected and takes the market by surprise that you will see "heavy discounting". I do have 40% of the portfolio in cash just in case there are bargains
Then again I always have that much of the portfolio in cash. It got to 5% during the COVID March Madness of 2020. When there is blood in the streets.. buy!
Whilst "inflation and higher interest rate" is a certainty, global recession is not. A mild and localised recession (UK, EU - the usual weak ones, South America) perhaps. The further we get into the year the less likely a global recession is.
Specifically in Australia, I would watch New Zealand as a canary in the mine. They had hotter Inflation numbers and raised IR earlier than Australia. Still high but NZ have broken the back of their inflation numbers... The risk of CBs overtightening monetary policy is there but if they are going to break something we will see it in NZ first.
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/inflation-cpi
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/inflation-cpi
(20min delay)