I should be banned from posting about REITs, and seeking medical...

I should be banned from posting about REITs, and seeking medical help for even thinking about buying any after my 2008-2016 experience. Take whatever I write here with a grain of salt. I have a limited understanding about economic issues.

I lived in mainland China for many years. In Shanghai and Beijing, e-commerce and internet shopping is far advanced of Australia. Yet the malls there are always busy. Our assets are mostly Large Format Retail sites which sell items which we like to look at and touch before buying. Our network of locations will, I imagine, allow e-commerce to complement online shopping, not replace it.

The way I see it is: 1. We have full employment in Australia; 2. Interest rate rises are at/near the end/top of the cycle (possibly only down from here) which will certainly raise the price of REITs; 3. HDN pays a healthy 7.2% yield with in-demand assets, mostly in the growing cities of Sydney and Melbourne and is trading well below NTA; 4. News reports yesterday say Australia will have ~1 million foreigners settle here over just the next two years (a lazy way for both parties to raise overall GDP and the tax base). They will inevitably settle mostly in western Sydney and Melbourne, and no doubt visit HDN locations. These million plus extra people will inevitably push the price of residential housing higher and create demand for new housing (and lead to even further migration, family reunions, etc.). New housing = new purchases of items our LFR sites sell. 6. Australian agricultural products, coal, gas, and hard commodities are in demand in China, India and Japan. Not to mention any potential boom due to the demand for lithium, copper, etc. to support energy transition. We have a lot of money coming into the country via our commodity exports.

I just can't see a major recession happening here with full employment and the immigration-put Ponzi scheme in place. I can't see property prices collapsing given the circumstances outlined. Yes, HDN could head below $1.00 but there's also the possibility that after 18 months of weakness and decline, we are near the bottom of the cycle. If rates start getting cut later in the year/early next year, $1.15 HDN units paying 7% start to look appealing.

My main fear is a drying-up of global credit markets and an inability to refinance debt due to a lack of global liquidity (the Fed breaks something). However surely most imaginable fears have been priced-in and then some. We reached $1.40 a couple of months ago, which seemed a little irrational, but then again so does $1.15.

I would be very comfortable entering HDN, or one of the other two property stocks I hold, at these prices. I haven't added to HDN since about 2021 (when it was Aventus). However a re-testing of the $1.10 sure will test my wait-and-see resolve. I'm very happy to be holding this stock and looking at nibbling should it drop further. I'm almost hoping the usual ex-distribution price weakness does just that. Property stocks in general look inexpensive at the moment, although deservedly so, given the fear in the market and interest rate rises.