PME pro medicus limited

Ann: HY25 Results Presentation, page-8

  1. 69 Posts.
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    It is a fantastic company with 50% of revenue going into the bottom line, and the revenue is growing strongly. But is currently trading at ~150x revenue. What does this mean? Given that it has 9% market share, and if it achieves the improbable and absolute dominance of this market at a 90% market share, its revenue will go up by 10x. At that point, the investor is left with a very profitable, but barely growing business at 2-3% pa. Assume at that point 70% of revenue becomes the bottom line, which is the maximum possible, then the PE will be 150x/10/0.7=21.4, which is about right for a very profitable but slow growing business in a relatively low interest rate environment. At its growth rate of ~30%pa, it takes about 8 years to grow 10x. So given today's price implies a PE of ~21 in 8 years under the most optimistic assumptions, the investor will get nothing for 8 years.
    This simple math illustrates how a most excellent business can become absurdly valued. If the investor wants to get 10%pa for his risk for sitting 8 years on it, then under the best assumptions the share price must more than halve today to deliver the 10% return for the next 8 years. Anything less optimistic than the above assumptions will decimate the share price in those intervening 8 years despite the company being a fantastic business.
    This is just some rational illustrations for this super-expensive stock. Don't take this as a given. I am not an advisor. Do your own analysis of the future scenarios and draw your own conclusions. I have followed this stock since its listing. It was one of the great success stories in the health technology space. I am only highlighting the current valuation issue. Other than that, I absolutely admire the company's management for building this incredible business.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$270.50
Change
-8.600(3.08%)
Mkt cap ! $28.25B
Open High Low Value Volume
$280.60 $280.77 $267.13 $52.46M 193.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 5 $269.50
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$270.58 599 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
PME (ASX) Chart
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